282
FXUS62 KMLB 060730
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
330 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...High risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents
for beaches across Volusia, Brevard, and Indian River counties...

...An extended period of above-normal temperatures continues into
early next week...

...Chances for showers and lightning storms increase early next
week...

Current-Tonight....Warm, muggy, and dry early this morning across
ECFL. Skies, again, are PCloudy with light/variable to calm winds
areawide. Weak surface high pressure ridging extends across the
region. Ridging continues aloft with very warm H500 temps. PWAT
values will decrease along the coast to around 1.50 inches
(perhaps less) with higher amounts up to around 2.00 inches
across Lake County. A weak pressure gradient pattern will continue
at the surface. Our light morning winds will, again, transition
onshore 5-10 mph, with the ECSB moving inland fairly quickly.

PoPs across coastal counties only 10-20pct with culprit
aforementioned warm air aloft and (deep layer) drier air pushing
onto the coast. Highest PoPs reserved for N/W of I-4 30-50pct and
this could end up being generous for most here. Storm steering flow
component remains light out of the north. Primary storm threats
remain occasional to frequent lightning strikes, brief gusty winds
of 35 to 45 mph locally, and torrential downpours which could cause
minor/nuisance flooding concerns. A sea breeze collision will
occur near the Lake/Orange County border late. Convection should
diminish in the early-mid evening (or pushes west of our western
counties). Expect mostly dry conditions overnight with PCloudy
skies and light winds.

Temperatures will remain hot with conditions rather muggy. Afternoon
maxes forecast near 90F to L90s near the coast and L-M90s inland.
Can`t rule out an U90 degree reading or two well inland. Peak
afternoon heat indices forecast 102-107F, and will NOT issue another
Heat Advisory - however conditions still dictate that if outdoors,
plan to take frequent breaks in air conditioning or shaded areas,
stay well-hydrated, and know the signs of heat stress. This level of
heat can still affect anyone without adequate cooling and hydration.
Overnight mins remain warm and sultry and in the M-U70s for most.

A High Risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents
is forecast today for beaches along the Volusia, Brevard, and
Indian River coastline. Here, entering the water is strongly
discouraged! A Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents is in
effect for St. Lucie and Martin County beaches.

Sun-Mon...A non-tropical mid/upper level low pressure over the
western Atlc drifts slowly towards the Carolina coast while on a
weakening trend. Closer to home, the deep layer drier air fades
away as moisture slowly returns with PWAT values pushing 2.00
inches. PoPs increase gradually 30-40pct along the coast and
50-60pct interior counties for Sun, then around 60pct areawide for
Mon. Daily sea breeze collisions across the interior and perhaps
a little closer across the eastern peninsula on Mon. Storm
steering light southerly on Sun, then light SSW on Mon.
Temperatures aloft, H500, still rather warm at -4.0C to -5.0C.

Very warm temperatures persist, with highs in the L-M90s each day.
Heat risk continues to be a concern, with peak heat indices still
102-107F. Will continue to monitor need for Heat Advisories.
Overnight lows consistent in the M-U70s.

Tue-Fri...An onshore component develops by mid-week continuing into
late week. PWATs remain around 2.00 inches and mid-level ridging
will concentrate northward. Daily sea breezes with offshore steering
flow thru Wed, becoming more southerly Thu-Fri. Keeping PoPs around
60pct areawide until more consistency dictates otherwise. Highs in
the U80s to L90s each day, with clouds and onset of onshore breezes
the deciding factor in the lower end of high max potential. Lows
continue mainly in the 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Generally favorable boating conditions continue thru the holiday
weekend and thru early next week. Seas mainly 2-3 ft and perhaps a
little higher invof lightning storms. The pressure gradient will
remain fairly weak supporting a daily sea breeze regime. Winds AOB
15 kts. ISOLD-SCT showers and lightning storms, with coverage
possibly increasing early next week and an offshore storm
steering component Tue-Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR is forecast outside of storms. A slightly stronger ECSB compared
to the WCSB will result in the greatest chance for afternoon showers/storms
over west-central FL. Mostly dry weather is forecast at the coastal
sites with VCTS beginning at 19-20Z inland. TEMPO TSRA groups are
only forecast for KLEE from 20-23Z. Light and variable winds are
expected to increase from the E in the afternoon at 5-10kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  76  93  77 /  20  10  30  10
MCO  95  76  96  77 /  30  10  60  10
MLB  91  77  93  77 /  10  10  30  20
VRB  91  76  93  76 /  10  10  30  10
LEE  96  78  95  78 /  50  30  60  20
SFB  95  77  95  77 /  20  10  50  20
ORL  96  77  96  79 /  30  20  60  10
FPR  91  75  93  76 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Fehling