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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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378 FXUS62 KMLB 061129 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 729 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New AVIATION, PREVIOUS UPDATE... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 651 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR is forecast outside of storms. A slightly stronger ECSB compared to the WCSB will result in the greatest chance for afternoon showers/storms over west-central FL. Mostly dry weather is forecast at the coastal sites with VCTS beginning at 19-20Z inland. TEMPO TSRA groups are only forecast for KLEE from 20-23Z. Light and variable wind are expected to increase from the E in the afternoon at 5-10kts. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...High risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents for beaches across Volusia, Brevard, and Indian River counties... ...An extended period of above-normal temperatures continues into early next week... ...Chances for showers and lightning storms increase early next week... Current-Tonight....Warm, muggy, and dry early this morning across ECFL. Skies, again, are PCloudy with light/variable to calm winds areawide. Weak surface high pressure ridging extends across the region. Ridging continues aloft with very warm H500 temps. PWAT values will decrease along the coast to around 1.50 inches (perhaps less) with higher amounts up to around 2.00 inches across Lake County. A weak pressure gradient pattern will continue at the surface. Our light morning winds will, again, transition onshore 5-10 mph, with the ECSB moving inland fairly quickly. PoPs across coastal counties only 10-20pct with culprit aforementioned warm air aloft and (deep layer) drier air pushing onto the coast. Highest PoPs reserved for N/W of I-4 30-50pct and this could end up being generous for most here. Storm steering flow component remains light out of the north. Primary storm threats remain occasional to frequent lightning strikes, brief gusty winds of 35 to 45 mph locally, and torrential downpours which could cause minor/nuisance flooding concerns. A sea breeze collision will occur near the Lake/Orange County border late. Convection should diminish in the early-mid evening (or pushes west of our western counties). Expect mostly dry conditions overnight with PCloudy skies and light winds. Temperatures will remain hot with conditions rather muggy. Afternoon maxes forecast near 90F to L90s near the coast and L-M90s inland. Can`t rule out an U90 degree reading or two well inland. Peak afternoon heat indices forecast 102-107F, and will NOT issue another Heat Advisory - however conditions still dictate that if outdoors, plan to take frequent breaks in air conditioning or shaded areas, stay well-hydrated, and know the signs of heat stress. This level of heat can still affect anyone without adequate cooling and hydration. Overnight mins remain warm and sultry and in the M-U70s for most. A High Risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents is forecast today for beaches along the Volusia, Brevard, and Indian River coastline. Here, entering the water is strongly discouraged! A Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents is in effect for St. Lucie and Martin County beaches. Sun-Mon...A non-tropical mid/upper level low pressure over the western Atlc drifts slowly towards the Carolina coast while on a weakening trend. Closer to home, the deep layer drier air fades away as moisture slowly returns with PWAT values pushing 2.00 inches. PoPs increase gradually 30-40pct along the coast and 50-60pct interior counties for Sun, then around 60pct areawide for Mon. Daily sea breeze collisions across the interior and perhaps a little closer across the eastern peninsula on Mon. Storm steering light southerly on Sun, then light SSW on Mon. Temperatures aloft, H500, still rather warm at -4.0C to -5.0C. Very warm temperatures persist, with highs in the L-M90s each day. Heat risk continues to be a concern, with peak heat indices still 102-107F. Will continue to monitor need for Heat Advisories. Overnight lows consistent in the M-U70s. Tue-Fri...An onshore component develops by mid-week continuing into late week. PWATs remain around 2.00 inches and mid-level ridging will concentrate northward. Daily sea breezes with offshore steering flow thru Wed, becoming more southerly Thu-Fri. Keeping PoPs around 60pct areawide until more consistency dictates otherwise. Highs in the U80s to L90s each day, with clouds and onset of onshore breezes the deciding factor in the lower end of high max potential. Lows continue mainly in the 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Generally favorable boating conditions continue thru the holiday weekend and thru early next week. Seas mainly 2-3 ft and perhaps a little higher invof lightning storms. The pressure gradient will remain fairly weak supporting a daily sea breeze regime. Winds AOB 15 kts. ISOLD-SCT showers and lightning storms, with coverage possibly increasing early next week and an offshore storm steering component Tue-Wed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 76 93 77 / 20 10 30 10 MCO 95 76 96 77 / 30 10 60 10 MLB 91 77 93 77 / 10 10 30 20 VRB 91 76 93 76 / 10 10 30 10 LEE 96 78 95 78 / 50 30 60 20 SFB 95 77 95 77 / 20 10 50 20 ORL 96 77 96 79 / 30 20 60 10 FPR 91 75 93 76 / 10 10 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sedlock AVIATION...Fehling