Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
130 FXUS62 KMLB 061336 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 936 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 930 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 No changes needed to the forecast this morning, as everything remains on track. Drier air can be seen on water vapor imagery from GOES-East early this morning. Forecast PWATs around 1.5" or less and warm temperatures aloft should prevent any showers or storms from developing over coastal areas. Pops there remain under 20%. Farther inland, PWATS look to continue around 2", especially in Lake County. A few showers and storms could develop west of I-95 as the sea breeze moves inland, but the highest chances will be west of Orlando, closest to the sea breeze collision late this afternoon. PoPs there 30-50%. It will remain hot and muggy across the area today. Forecast peak heat indices are just shy of Heat Advisory criteria, reaching up to 100-107 degrees, especially over the interior. Afternoon high temperatures themselves are forecast in the lower to mid-90s. A few interior locations could see the upper 90s. If outdoors, plan to take frequent breaks in air conditioning or shaded areas, stay well-hydrated, and know the signs of heat stress. This level of heat can still affect anyone without adequate cooling and hydration. A High Risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents is forecast today for beaches along the Volusia, Brevard, and Indian River coastline. Here, entering the water is strongly discouraged! A Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents is in effect for St. Lucie and Martin County beaches. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 651 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR is forecast outside of storms. A slightly stronger ECSB compared to the WCSB will result in the greatest chance for afternoon showers/storms over west-central FL. Mostly dry weather is forecast at the coastal sites with VCTS beginning at 19-20Z inland. TEMPO TSRA groups are only forecast for KLEE from 20-23Z. Light and variable wind are expected to increase from the E in the afternoon at 5-10kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Generally favorable boating conditions continue thru the holiday weekend and thru early next week. Seas mainly 2-3 ft and perhaps a little higher invof lightning storms. The pressure gradient will remain fairly weak supporting a daily sea breeze regime. Winds AOB 15 kts. ISOLD-SCT showers and lightning storms, with coverage possibly increasing early next week and an offshore storm steering component Tue-Wed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 76 93 77 / 20 10 30 10 MCO 95 76 96 77 / 30 10 60 10 MLB 91 77 93 77 / 10 10 30 20 VRB 91 76 93 76 / 10 10 30 10 LEE 96 78 95 78 / 50 30 60 20 SFB 95 77 95 77 / 20 10 50 20 ORL 96 77 96 79 / 30 20 60 10 FPR 91 75 93 76 / 10 10 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Leahy AVIATION...Fehling