140
FXUS63 KMKX 060808
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
308 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry today with just an outside chance for a shower over
  far southern WI.

- Good chance (60-80%) for rain and thunderstorms very late
  tonight and on Sunday.

- Continued near daily chances (30-50%) for showers and
  thunderstorms through mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 308 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Today through Sunday:

Patchy fog and stratus can be expected early this morning, with
clouds scattering out by the mid morning hours. Rising heights
aloft will support a mostly dry forecast today, though there
will be an outside chance (15-20%) for a shower or perhaps
brief thunderstorm over far southern and south central Wisconsin
this afternoon. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s, with a
lake breeze likely by early afternoon.

A trough digging across the central Plains will support
thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening over
portions of Iowa and Nebraska, with these storms moving eastward
into the forecast area late tonight and Sunday morning. Current
timing brings this activity into the far west around or a little
after daybreak Sunday, with a disorganized complex/multiple
clusters of convection lifting east-northeastward through the
area through the day, with additional rounds of convection
developing to the west Sunday evening and night, near a weak
frontal boundary. Meager lapse rates will limit overall
instability and the severe threat, though enough shear may be
present for a few briefly strong storms. Widespread severe
weather is not expected.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 308 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Sunday night through Friday:

A broad area of troughing over the Great Lakes and central US,
with multiple embedded shortwaves, will support daily chances
for rain and thunderstorms through at least mid week. Much of
this activity will be diurnally driven, with peak coverage
during the afternoon and early evening hours. An occasional
strong storm is possible during this stretch, but there does not
appear to be a good chance for widespread or organized severe
weather. Highs Monday through Thursday will be in the upper 70s
to low 80s, with lows in the 60s.

There are indications that toward the end of the week, a
building ridge may develop over the central US, which would
favor lower precip chances and increased temperatures to end the
workweek and into next weekend.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 308 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Patchy MVFR and IFR stratus and fog are expected early this
morning, before clouds lift and scatter out to VFR by mid
morning. Winds will be light and variable early, with a lake
breeze turning winds easterly by afternoon for those terminals
closer to Lake Michigan.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to approach from the west
late tonight into Sunday morning, but should remain west of MSN
through 12z Sunday.

Boxell

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 308 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Light and variable winds are expected today, before they turn
southerly tonight. Southerly flow will then persist across the
lake into mid week, though wind speeds will remain fairly light
given a weak and disorganized pressure gradient. Several rounds
of rain and thunderstorms are expected during this time.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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