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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
503 FXUS63 KMKX 061445 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 945 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry today with just an outside chance for a shower or storm. - Good chance (60-80%) for rain and thunderstorms very late tonight and on Sunday. - Continued near daily chances (30-50%) for showers and thunderstorms through the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 945 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 There is still an area of low stratus lingering over southwestern parts of the forecast area, which should gradually scatter out by early this afternoon. Otherwise, scattered diunral cumulus clouds should continue to develop into this afternoon. There remains a small chance of a shower or storm this afternoon, as very weak instability develops with a passing vorticity maximum and perhaps helped by the lake breeze boundary. Most of the area will remain dry this afternoon. Highs should reach the upper 70s inland, with middle 70s lakeside, as winds shift onshore. Wood && .SHORT TERM... Issued 308 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Today through Sunday: Patchy fog and stratus can be expected early this morning, with clouds scattering out by the mid morning hours. Rising heights aloft will support a mostly dry forecast today, though there will be an outside chance (15-20%) for a shower or perhaps brief thunderstorm over far southern and south central Wisconsin this afternoon. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s, with a lake breeze likely by early afternoon. A trough digging across the central Plains will support thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening over portions of Iowa and Nebraska, with these storms moving eastward into the forecast area late tonight and Sunday morning. Current timing brings this activity into the far west around or a little after daybreak Sunday, with a disorganized complex/multiple clusters of convection lifting east-northeastward through the area through the day, with additional rounds of convection developing to the west Sunday evening and night, near a weak frontal boundary. Meager lapse rates will limit overall instability and the severe threat, though enough shear may be present for a few briefly strong storms. Widespread severe weather is not expected. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 308 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Sunday night through Friday: A broad area of troughing over the Great Lakes and central US, with multiple embedded shortwaves, will support daily chances for rain and thunderstorms through at least mid week. Much of this activity will be diurnally driven, with peak coverage during the afternoon and early evening hours. An occasional strong storm is possible during this stretch, but there does not appear to be a good chance for widespread or organized severe weather. Highs Monday through Thursday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, with lows in the 60s. There are indications that toward the end of the week, a building ridge may develop over the central US, which would favor lower precip chances and increased temperatures to end the workweek and into next weekend. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 945 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 There is still an area of low stratus lingering over the Madison and Janesville terminals and to the west and southwest of there. Ceilings were in the 300 to 1000 foot AGL range. These ceilings should gradually scatter out by early this afternoon. Otherwise, scattered diurnal cumulus clouds should continue to develop into this afternoon. There remains a small chance of a shower or storm this afternoon, though most of the area will remain dry. Light northwest winds are expected, with a southeast lake breeze developing this afternoon for terminals near Lake Michigan. Light south winds tonight will become south to southwest on Sunday and increase, with a southeast lake breeze near Lake Michigan in the afternoon. An area of showers and some thunderstorms should move northeast into the area around or after 12Z Sunday, gradually weakening as they move through. More scattered showers or storms may develop Sunday afternoon and night. May see some reduced visibility and ceilings in any showers or storms. Wood && .MARINE... Issued 308 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Light and variable winds are expected today, before they turn southerly tonight. Southerly flow will then persist across the lake into mid week, though wind speeds will remain fairly light given a weak and disorganized pressure gradient. Several rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected during this time. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee