042
FXUS62 KMHX 291133
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
733 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical summertime pattern will remain in place through early
week with high pressure offshore and troughing inland. The next
frontal system approaches the east coast mid week. High pressure
builds in behind the frontal system late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 315 AM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Scattered seabreeze thunderstorms this afternoon

 - Heat indices peak around 100-105 degrees

ENC continues to be influenced by high pressure over the western
Atlantic which is bringing a very warm and humid airmass across
the region. While we will be moderately unstable with SBCAPE
expected to peak around 2000-2500 J/Kg, lack of shear and
appreciable forcing will keep thunderstorm chances near climo,
peaking around 20-30% this afternoon, with primary forcing from
sea/sound breezes and any outflow boundaries that develop.
Storms for the most part will remain below severe criteria but
a few storms could produce strong wind gusts and small hail.
Storms could also produce locally heavy rainfall with PW values
around 1.75-2" and slow storm motions. Low level thicknesses
change little over yesterday and expect highs in the low to mid
90s inland and mid 80s to around 90 along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...

Storms are expected to wane fairly quickly this evening as we
lose diurnal heating with mainly dry conditions through the rest
of the overnight. Lows will be similar to previous nights in the
mid 70s inland and upper 70s to around 80 along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 5 AM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Hot conditions continue with heat indices 100-105F Monday
   and Tuesday afternoon

 - Frontal system approaching the eastern seaboard Tuesday-
   Wednesday increases rain chances mid-week, and could bring
   heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.

 - High pressure builds in late week, bringing back the typical
   summertime pattern with sea breeze convection and warmer
   temps

Ridging strengthens offshore, as highs persist in the low to
mid 90s, with heat indices 100-105F likely through Tuesday. The
cumulative effect of several days with high heat indices (and
little relief at night) is something for those working or
spending much time outside to consider as they make preparations
for the heat.

Trough over central NC and sea breeze will be two areas to
watch for thunderstorm development Monday. Lack of shear paired
with ample instability favors pulse thunderstorms on Monday,
with lack of upper level support keeping PoPs in the chance to
slight chance range as coverage of storms will be isolated to
scattered. Tuesday, a frontal system will quickly move towards
the Eastern seaboard, before stalling out over the Carolinas as
the front encounters the high stationed to our east. This
stalled front causes PoPs to increase quite a bit mid- week,
with 60-80% chance of rain Wednesday PM.

Tuesday, cold front should be progressing through western and
central NC. Along this front there will be 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE
over central NC, with almost 20kt of deep layer shear and PWATs
well above climo. Long skinny CAPE profiles with enough shear
for organized storm development will result in heavy rain
potential with maybe some stronger wind gusts as well. Most of
the frontal precip Tuesday should remain to our west, maybe
reaching our western most coastal plain counties in the evening.
With better upper level support to the north and west and
unimpressive shear paired with weaker than recently seen CAPEs,
at this point not too concerned about the severe potential
Tuesday evening for our CWA, although SPC does clip our western
zones in a marginal (1/5) risk for Tuesday. Meanwhile, Tuesday a
tightened pressure gradient with the high offshore and the front
approaching from the west will result in a very gusty day along
the coast. With a loss of daytime heating Tuesday night, storm
coverage and intensity is expected to lessen as the front slowly
shifts east.

Wednesday, front comes to a halt over eastern NC, and this will
be the day to watch out for in our CWA should the current trend
hold. Lesser coverage and intensity of precip in the morning
will quickly reinvigorate once we get some daytime heating in
the late morning and afternoon hours. Moist, skinny CAPE
profiles (1000-2000 J/kg) and slow storm motion along a
stationary boundary is a great setup for heavy rain and flash
flooding concerns Wednesday PM. WPC has us in a day 4
(Wednesday) marginal (1/5) ERO generally along and east of hwy
17, where instability along and east of the stalled front is the
best. Severe potential remains limited with weaker shear and
profiles not really conducive to microbursts. Long range
ensemble probs are generally suggesting 1-2" of rain over our
CWA, but at this point these estimates hold little value given
the coarse nature of the models. Over the coming days once more
high-rest guidance is available the envelope of QPF ranges will
be more apparent.

Front may linger along the coast Thursday as it slowly moves
east, keeping chc PoPs in place. Meanwhile, a weak low may form
up along the stalled boundary as it encounters warmer gulf
stream waters, as the baroclinic zone provides enough
cyclogenesis. As the weak low quickly progresses N and E away
from our coast, high pressure builds in with a more typical
summertime pattern returning to ENC to end the work week with
sea breeze convection and warm temps.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 730 AM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Typical summertime pattern with widely SCT seabreeze TSRA

Patchy shallow fog across SW rtes, mainly Duplin Co, will
dissipate quickly this morning. Otherwise, pred VFR conditions
expected across rtes outside of diurnal thunderstorms this
afternoon and early evening. Storm chances peak around 20-30%
mid to late afternoon with initiation along the sea/sound
breezes and storm outflow boundaries. Fog chances this morning
tonight remain quite low for most of the area, generally less
than 10%, but cannot rule out light fog/mist with far SW rtes
having the highest chance of seeing reductions in vsbys.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 530 AM Sunday...Generally VFR conditions expected Monday,
although afternoon tstorm chances could bring reduced vis and
cigs. Tuesday through Thursday a stalled cold front will be
impacting the region, bringing chances for sub-VFR ceilings,
heavy rain, and tstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Typical summertime pattern continues Monday, with breeze SW
   winds and PM tstorm chances for inland sounds and rivers.

 - Monday night through Tuesday, SW winds strengthen to 20-30 kts

 - Heavy rain and tstorms expected Wednesday into Thursday as
   front stalls over the region.

High pressure remains centered offshore bringing S to SW
winds across the waters through the short term. Winds around
5-15 kt this morning but will continue to see the typical
diurnally enhanced winds to around 15-20 kt during the afternoon
and evening hours before subsiding late tonight. Seas around
2-4 ft will continue through the short term with a moderate 9-10
sec swell. The thunderstorm risk is expected to be fairly
typical for summertime, with the risk being focused over the
inland rivers and sounds during the afternoon and evening hours,
followed by a shift in the risk to the offshore coastal waters
during the overnight hours.

LONG TERM /Monday though Thursday/...
As of 530 AM Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Strong wind gusts 15-30kt and seas building to 4-7 ft along waters
  Monday night through Tuesday night

- Heavy rain and tstorms expected to slowly move through the
  region Tuesday night through Wednesday

Monday and Tuesday pressure gradient tightens with high
strengthening offshore and approaching cold front, and wind
gusts pick up to become 15-30kt out of the S/SW and seas
respond to be 4-7 ft. Trended winds up by near 5 kts Tuesday
night with this update, well above NBM, with ensemble guidance
and deterministic models all keying in on stronger wind gusts.
Of note, ECMWF ensemble guidance gives a 20-30% chance of gale
force gusts developing along the Pamlico Sound Tuesday night.
Winds die down Wednesday as stalled front is overhead, but this
brings heavy rain and thunderstorms with it. Thursday PM precip
is finally expected to shift well offshore, and high pressure
builds in bringing more pleasant conditions beyond Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ