192
FXUS62 KMHX 061107
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
707 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Oppressive heat and humidity will remain over ENC today. High
pressure will remain centered off the coast through early next
week. At the same time a weakening cold front will approach from
the west this weekend and eventually stalling over the Eastern
Seaboard before dissipating Sunday into Monday. This will bring
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms through early
next week. A wetter pattern looks to set up mid to late week
as an approaching front interacts with moisture from the
remnants of Beryl.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 700 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES:
-Heat Advisory UPGRADED to Excessive Heat Warning for Duplin,
 Lenoir, Pitt, Martin, Washington, and Beaufort counties.
 Hazardous apparent temperatures at or exceeding 110F possible
 through the afternoon and evening.

-Heat Advisory ISSUED for remaining inland counties with
 hazardous apparent temperatures between 105-110F possible
 through the afternoon and evening.

-Chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening,
 primarily along and west of hwy 17.

This Morning: Hot and humid with temps in the upper 70s through
much of the CWA as of 7 AM. Scattered to broken cloud cover
currently over ENC as a weak boundary is making its way through
on a eastward trajectory. Along this boundary scattered to
isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible through the
remainder of the morning.

Today: Not much change in the upper or low level patterns on
Sat across the area as upper ridging will remain over the
Southeast and an upper level low begins to approach from the
east. Expect the seabreeze to get going once again in the
afternoon while a thermal trough looks to get set up across the
Piedmont. A cold front will be approaching from the west which
will be located near the Appalachians today. This thermal
trough and front will provide some increased lift across ENC
today. Combined with increasing instability with SBCAPE values
around 1500-3000 J/kg and ample moisture with PWATs around 2+
inches across ENC expect shower and thunderstorm activity to be
slightly more widespread along the seabreeze and thermal trough
this afternoon and evening. As a result have SChc to Chc PoP`s
(and even some likely PoP`s towards the evening hours) across
the area for Sat afternoon starting after about 12PM. While
storms will be more pulse in nature, a few storms could produce
some stronger wind gusts given the strong instability and heavy
rain given the high PWATs across the area. Once again, as we get
towards sunset precip chances begin to dwindle with the loss of
daytime heating.

Another hot and oppressively humid day is forecast across ENC on
Saturday with heat advisory in place across much of ENC outside
of the coastal locations and OBX. Temps get as high as the mid
to upper 90s across our inland areas with upper 80s to low 90s
along the coast and OBX. Combined with the humidity it will feel
like 105-110F away from the coast and closer to 95-105 along
the coast and OBX. Western counties have been upgraded to a
Excessive Heat Warning, with Tds a bit higher today compared to
yesterday. Yesterday some sites reached 110F for the ApparentTs
along the coastal plain, so while forecast calls for max AppTs
of 110, 115 is not out of the question. The potential of warmer
than forecast temps was one of the factors in deciding to
upgrade headlines to a warning. Also included mainland Dare Co
to the heat advisory for today. Much like on Friday make sure
to stay hydrated, wear sunscreen, and try to limit strenuous
outdoor activity during the daytime. There is some bust
potential for the heat forecast for today if convection starts
up sooner, or becomes more widespread than expected ahead of the
sea breeze. However, impacts would be substantial enough should
the event play out like forecasted that the potential for
dangerous heat outweighs the chance of us not reaching 110F
AppTs.

With the thermal gradient from colder SSTs and warm land off of
NOBX, another gusty day is in store for NOBX, although slightly
weaker compared to yesterday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 430 AM Saturday...Chances of precip will quickly diminish
after sunset, leaving us with mostly cloudy to overcast skies
and another warm night in store. Lows will be in the mid 70s
inland, upper 70s to 80 for beaches. Guidance is hinting at a
fog or low stratus threat west of hwy 17 in the early morning
hours Sunday, but confidence remains low.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sat...Typical summertime pattern expected through
early next week, shifting to a wetter pattern mid to late week.
Temps will remain near climo.

A cold front will stall or dissipate west of the area, while
weak upper low offshore drifts towards the SE coast through
early next week. This boundary will likely do little, except to
possibly aid in shower/tstm development. Seabreeze, inland
troughing, and waves rotating through the upper trough to the
WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the
forecast Sunday into early next week. Did increase pops a bit
Sunday afternoon, especially north of the Pamlico Rvr where high
res guidance shows better convective coverage, near area of
better instability. Expect convective chances to be near or
slightly above climo Monday and Tuesday, with better chances for
more widespread coverage mid to late next week. Another front
will approach late next week, possibly stalling near or over the
area as weak waves develop along it which may interact with
moisture from the remnants of Beryl. Still too much uncertainty
this far out, so will continue to cap pops at chance through the
period. At this time it looks like the lack of shear should
limit overall svr threat. However, periods of moderate to heavy
rain will be possible, especially later in the period with PWATs
potentially creeping towards 2.5". Temps look to be near climo,
with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s each day and overnight
lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 700 AM Friday...VFR expected through the day outside of
any lower ceilings or vis in any heavy showers or thunderstorms
through today. Showers currently near EWN will slowly move
eastward this morning, moving offshore by late morning. Kept VCTS
mention this afternoon and evening for all terminals with ample
instability, forcing, and moisture present. Sub-VFR fog/low
stratus possible tonight into early Sunday morning, but
confidence remains low. Of the two, low cigs seem to be the more
likely outcome.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 240 AM Sat...Sct shower/tstm chances expected through the
next several days, peaking during max heating each afternoon
and evening, which could bring periods of sub-VFR to the
terminals. Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible each
night, with increased chances for areas that receive rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 700 AM Friday...After interrogating the 6Z suite of Hi-res
models, decided to put up a Small Craft Advisory for coastal
waters from Duck to Oregon Inlet from 1PM to 10PM today. While
Croatan/Roanoke/Albemarle Sounds and Pamlico River could also
see strong gusts near 25 kts, the lower frequency and duration
of 25+ gusts prevent the issuance of an SCA at this time.

As of 440 AM Friday...Waves currently 2-4
ft and winds blowing from the SSW at 10G15kts for southern
coastal waters, and 10-15G15-20kts for northern waters and
sounds. Thermal trough looks to set up once again, with gustier
conditions near NOBX. guidance is looking less impressive
compared to yesterday, and although some gusts of 25kts are
forecasted today, frequency looks to be small enough to avoid
any SCA issuance at this time. If guidance trends stronger, will
likely have to issue an SCA, but confidence in consistent gusts
>25kts remains low. Seas fall to 2-3 feet tonight, and SW winds
gust to near 15 kts.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 240 AM Sat...Overall pleasant boating conditions expected
through the period. Typical summertime pattern sets up with
high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc trough inland.
S-SW winds 5-15 kt Sun through Wed with seas 2-3 ft,
occasionally up to 4 ft across the outer waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 07/06 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         98/1969   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    95/1969   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      100/2010   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    97/1990   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         105/1900   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     99/1977   (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     this evening for NCZ029-044-045-079-080-090-091.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ046-047-081-092-094-193-194-198.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT
     this evening for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ
CLIMATE...MHX