662
FXUS62 KMHX 270204
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1004 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the next several
days. Dangerous heat will continue today along with the chance
for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Typical
summertime pattern returns late week and this weekend. The next
frontal system approaches the east coast mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1005 PM Thu...

Key Messages

 - Quiet but muggy evening expected

Dry and muggy conditions prevail under largely clear skies.
Cannot completely rule out some spotty shallow fog in the early
morning hours, but widespread fog and stratus not expected.
Overnight lows will remain mild with temperatures only dropping
into the mid to upper 70s across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 335 PM Thu...

Surface high pressure centered off the coast will continue to weaken
on Friday. While instability will be in place, shear and moisture
will remain fairly limited yielding only isolated to scattered
thunderstorms by Friday afternoon. Sea breeze will be the most
likely catalyst for thunderstorm development beginning along the
coast and pushing inland later in the afternoon/evening. An upper
level ridge will also continue to weaken, causing high temperatures
to taper off to the mid to low 90s, with heat indices likely between
100-105F. As a result, holding off on a heat advisory for Friday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Hot conditions continue through the long term, with heat
   indices 100-105F every afternoon (90-100F along the coast)

Low level heights retreat slightly the rest of the week as the
upper level ridge weakens, and highs drop to the low to mid
90s, with heat indices 100-105F likely. The cumulative effect of
several days with high heat indices (and little relief at
night) is something for those working or spending much time
outside to consider this week as they make preparations for the
heat.

As ridge continues to weaken, trough over central NC and sea
breeze will be two areas to watch for thunderstorm development
each day. Lack of shear paired with ample instability favors
pulse thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Lack of upper level
support keeps PoPs in the slight chance range through Tuesday,
as coverage of storms will be isolated to scattered. Next week,
a frontal system will approach the eastern seaboard, with the
best upper level forcing well to our north. While it is still
uncertain if the frontal system will stall to our west or blow
through the region, PoPs do trend upwards mid- week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 740 PM Thu...

Key Messages

 - VFR conditions expected overnight and into Friday. Spotty
   TSRA possible tomorrow afternoon.

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals this hour and will
continue through the overnight hours, although some shallow
low-impact fog is possible just before sunrise. VFR conditions
and light southwest flow to start Friday with sea breeze
advancing inland after 18z turning winds more southerly. A few
iso tstorms possible along this boundary in the afternoon, with
a low chance (less than 10%) of storms producing strong winds in
excess of 40 kt.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...High pressure overhead helps keep winds
light to calm, and when paired with moist low levels, sub-VFR
level patchy fog will be possible each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 210 PM Thu...Pleasant boating conditions will continue
through tonight with high pressure in control. Latest obs show
light and variable winds, generally 10 kt or less with seas 1-2
ft. Winds will become S-SW 10-15 kt this afternoon with seas
building to 2-3 ft tonight.

LONG TERM /Friday though Monday/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Fantastic boating conditions are expected
through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure lingers over
the region. The pressure gradient will remain quite weak, which
will allow sea/sound breezes to play a big part in wind strength
and direction. Light and variable winds below 10 kts are
expected each morning, with winds increasing each afternoon and
evening to S/SW 10-20 kts in response to a developing sea
breeze for inland sounds/rivers and slightly pinched gradient
for coastal waters. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through the
weekend, with 4 footers along the Gulf Stream Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RTE/MS
SHORT TERM...RTE
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...CQD/MS/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ