238
FXUS62 KMHX 020627
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
227 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure will build in from the north the rest
of today and remain over the area through Wednesday. The high
then shifts offshore Thursday through this weekend with
oppressive heat and humidity returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 730 PM Monday...No major changes to the forecast. Showers
all well offshore at this point as the front moves further away
to our SE.

Previous Discussion...As of 3 PM Mon...Cool high pressure will
continue to build in from the north tonight with skies remaining
mostly clear. Though there will be a little bit of wind,
especially along the coast, expect strong cooling tonight which
will allow for temps to dip down into the upper 50s to lower 60s
inland and upper 60s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Mon...A much deserved seasonable, sunny, and low
humidity day expected tomorrow with high pressure continuing to
ridge into the region from the north. High temps will be several
degrees below normal with readings reaching the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tue...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Cooler than average temps are forecast on Wed

- Oppressive heat and humidity returns late week and this
  weekend

Wed...Upper troughing offshore will continue to push eastward
while upper ridge continues to build over the Southeast. At the
surface, high pressure gradually slides E`wards into the
Atlantic as weak coastal trough develops. Weak trough and
easterly flow may lead to isolated light showers, mainly across
the southern forecast area, but will keep mostly dry forecast
for now. Below normal temps will continue, with highs in the 80s
and dewpoints more comfortably in the 60s.

Thu through Mon...Our most impactful weather likely occurs at
the end of the week and into the weekend as oppressive heat and
humidity sets up across the Southeast once again. Upper ridging
will remain overhead into next weekend as any upper level
troughs struggle to dig S`wards. At the surface, high pressure
ridging will continue to push further offshore through the end
of the week allowing SSW and deeper moisture to return to the
area. Temps will grad warm late week into the weekend allowing
for oppressive heat and humidity to return, Fri into the
weekend. High temps will soar into the mid to upper 90s inland,
low 90s for the beaches, combined with dewpoints climbing back
up into the 70s. This could to heat index values peaking at
105-110 deg. A cold front will approach the area this weekend
and early next week, but will likely stall or dissipate west of
the area. This boundary will likely do little, except to
possibly aid in shower/tstm development. Will continue a mostly
dry forecast through Thu, with climo mostly diurnally driven
seabreeze pops this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06Z Wed/...
As of 120 AM Tue...VFR conditions prevail across terminals this
morning as high pressure centered over southern Canada ridges
southward into the mid-Atlantic, while yesterday`s front sits
stalled well to our south. Some stratus is hanging on the
northern side of this boundary and extending along the immediate
southern coast, but cigs are VFR and guidance is cool on the
prospect of any MVFR cigs overnight.

High pressure remains in control tomorrow with few to sct cu
coverage in the afternoon with easterly winds gusting to 15 kt
at times. Slightly greater fog/stratus threat early Wed morning
with increasing low level moisture thanks to the easterly flow.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 230 AM Tue... Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Sct diurnal shower/tstm chances return this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 1030 PM Monday...Dropped the SCA for coastal waters from
Cape Hatteras to Duck with seas falling to 4-5 feet and gusts
generally below 20 kts. Also dropped SCA for Pamlico Sound with
frequent gusts below 25 kts.

As of 3 PM Mon...SCAs will continue through most of tonight as
strong NE persists in the wake of a cold front. Winds are
currently N/NE at 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts, and are
expected to continue at this strength for the first half of
tonight. Thereafter, winds will begin to weaken and become
mostly NE 10-20 kts by tomorrow morning.

Seas have climbed quickly in response to the strong NE winds and
remain 4-6 ft (highest north of Cape Hatteras). Seas will remain
nearly steady through around midnight, and then will gradually
diminish overnight, becoming 3-5 ft tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 230 AM Tue...Mostly benign boating conditions are
forecast for the period. High pressure ridging continues to
gradually push E`wards across the area Tuesday night, relaxing
the gradient with winds easing to 5-15 kts while becoming more
E`rly by Wed morning. Winds continue to remain light and veer to
the SE and eventually the S on Thurs as ridging becomes
centered to the E. Seas will gradually lower as well Wed and
Thurs down to 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK/RJ
SHORT TERM...SGK/RJ
LONG TERM...CQD/RCF
AVIATION...MS/CQD
MARINE...SGK/RJ/CQD