586
FXUS62 KMHX 031941
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
341 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push offshore tonight and then remain
centered off the coast through this weekend. Oppressive heat
and humidity return this weekend as well as chances for showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Wed...A warm and pleasant day overall across ENC
as temps have gotten into the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints
have remained in the upper 50s to mid 60s this afternoon. E`rly
winds today have become more SE`rly and breezy behind a weak
seabreeze this afternoon but minimal impact from the seabreeze
is expected. Widespread diurnal Cu still persists across much
of ENC with even some isolated shower activity noted in mainland
Hyde County this afternoon. Coverage is too isolated to include
any mentionable PoP`s but wouldn`t be surprised if a sprinkle
or two hung around for the next few hours before dissipating
with the loss of daytime heating.

Otherwise, high pressure will continue to shift offshore
overnight allowing winds to remain light and skies to become
mostly clear. Weak lee troughing develops further inland as a
weak cold front shifts across the Ohio River Valley, and winds
will veer to a southerly direction overnight allowing Tds to
slowly rise. Still, given the light winds inland and mostly
clear skies, another round of effective radiational cooling
will result in one final evening of relatively mild lows in the
mid to upper 60s. Along the immediate coast, temperatures hover
around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM Wed... High pressure becomes centered offshore on
Thursday allowing for south to southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph
persist across ENC. With the southerly winds in place,
dewpoints will continue to creep up as weak moisture return
continues as well. Diurnal cumulus field will develop once
again in the late morning to early afternoon and overspread the
entire CWA until the seabreeze can develop and push the cloud
field further inland. Otherwise with increasing low level
thicknesses temps will be slightly warmer on Thurs getting into
the low to mid 90s inland and into the mid 80s along the OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 AM Wed...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Oppressive heat and humidity returns late week and this
  weekend

Our most impactful weather likely occurs at the end of the week
and into the weekend as oppressive heat and humidity sets up
across the Southeast once again. Upper ridging will remain
overhead into next weekend as any upper level troughs struggle
to dig S`wards. At the surface, high pressure ridging will
continue to push further offshore through the end of the week
allowing SSW and deeper moisture to return to the area.

Temps will grad warm late week into the weekend allowing for
oppressive heat and humidity to return. High temps will soar
into the mid to upper 90s inland, upper 80s to low 90s for the
beaches, combined with dewpoints climbing back up into the 70s.
This could to heat index values peaking at 105-110 deg. A cold
front will approach the area this weekend and early next week,
but will likely stall or dissipate west of the area. This
boundary will likely do little, except to possibly aid in
shower/tstm development. Will continue a mostly dry forecast
through Thu, with climo mostly diurnally driven seabreeze pops
Fri into next week. Will continue to cap pops at chance.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Thu/...
As of 330 PM Wed... Primarily VFR conditions and light winds
are forecast across the CWA through the period. Ongoing SE`rly
winds at 5-10 kts will eventually become S`rly tonight as high
pressure ridging pushes offshore. With light winds and mo clear
skies forecast there is a low end <10% chance of seeing some
radiational fog especially across OAJ/EWN, though given the
lower confidence in this occuring have kept fog out of the TAF
forecast for now and will monitor trends for tonight. Otherwise
light S`rly winds will continue through tomorrow with a return
of the diurnal Cu deck at 5-7 kft tomorrow as well.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 245 AM Wed... Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Sct diurnal shower/tstm chances return this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 345 PM Wed... No significant changes to the forecast as
pleasant boating conditions continue over area waters as high
pressure, centered off the coast, extends southward over the
Carolinas. Ongoing 5 to 15 kt SE`rly breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas
will continue to persist over our waters through tonight with
winds and seas changing little through Thursday.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 245 AM Wed...Mostly benign boating conditions are
forecast for the period. Light and variable winds to start off
Thu, becoming SSE 5-15 kt in the afternoon. Typical summertime
pattern late week into the weekend, with SSW winds 10-20 kt,
strongest during the late afternoon and evening. Seas generally
2-4 ft through the period, with potential for 5 ft across the
outer waters Fri night. May continue to see longer period swells
from very distant Hurricane Beryl through Fri, though should
have little impact on wave heights.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF