551
FXUS62 KMHX 282304
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
704 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical summertime pattern will remain in place through early
next week, with high pressure offshore and troughing inland.
The next frontal system approaches the east coast mid next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 700 PM Saturday...

Key Messages

 - Isolated shower and storm coverage ends by sunset, giving way
   to another clear and warm night

Convection is quickly diminishing this hour, reduced to just a
few pinprick showers across the inner coastal plain and the
Albemarle Sound. Dry conditions prevail once again tonight under
clear skies as lows fall into the mid to upper 70s. Like the
past few nights,

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Saturday...

Key Messages

 - Scattered seabreeze thunderstorms on Sunday, with heat
   indices of 100-105 degrees

At face value, Sunday looks very similar to today, with the
continuation of typical summertime heat, humidity, and seabreeze
convection. Of note, though, short-term ensemble guidance
suggests a slightly higher coverage of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. It appears this is due, in part, to the low-level
flow becoming more westerly later in the day, which may lead to
better convergence along the seabreeze. By this time this
increased convergence develops, the seabreeze should be fairly
far inland, which suggests there may be a relative "max" in
coverage across Greene, Pitt, and Martin Counties, and perhaps
as far east as the Albemarle Sound vicinity. Like today, the
environment doesn`t appear overly supportive of stronger
downdrafts, which should keep the pulse severe risk at a
minimum. The one potential exception is in the counties
mentioned above where the potential for increased convergence
may allow deeper convection to last longer, which would
potentially up the risk of stronger downdrafts (ie. 50+ mph).

Also like today, heat indices should top out in the 100-105
degree range. Dewpoints are forecast to be 1-2 degrees higher
than today, allowing a few more locations to reach a heat index
of 105 compared to today. Even so, it still appears that the
risk of widespread, dangerous heat is low, and no heat headlines
are currently planned.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...

Key Messages

 - Hot conditions continue through the long term, with heat
   indices 100-105F every afternoon

 - Frontal system approaching the eastern seaboard Wednesday
   increases rain chances Wednesday PM, and could bring heavy
   rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.

Upper level ridge continues weakening, eventually shifting offshore,
as highs persist in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices 100-105F
likely through Tuesday. The cumulative effect of several days with
high heat indices (and little relief at night) is something for
those working or spending much time outside to consider as they make
preparations for the heat.

As ridge continues to weaken, trough over central NC and sea breeze
will be two areas to watch for thunderstorm development each day.
Lack of shear paired with ample instability favors pulse
thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Lack of upper level support
keeps PoPs in the chance to slight chance range through Tuesday, as
coverage of storms will be isolated to scattered. Mid next week, a
frontal system will approach the eastern seaboard, with the best
upper level forcing well to our north. While it is still uncertain
if the frontal system will stall to our west or blow through the
region, PoPs do trend upwards mid- week, highest Wednesday PM when
models suggest the frontal precip moves through. Severe potential
looks to be limited at this time, with best upper level forcing and
shear well to the north. However, ample instability paired with
PWATS near 2" could bring heavy rain, frequent lightning, and
stronger wind gusts with convection associated with the front. If
the front ends up stalling over the region next week, this could
provide an axis for persistent, heavy precip, and will be worth
monitoring for flash flooding concerns. Plenty of possible scenarios
at this point with the frontal passage still 5 days out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Monday/...

As of 705 PM Saturday...

Key Messages

 - Typical summertime pattern with widely SCT seabreeze TSRA

VFR conditions in place at all terminals this evening as
convective activity, mainly in vicinity of ISO and PGV, quickly
diminishes with loss of heating. Expecting dry and VFR
conditions to prevail through the overnight hours. Relatively
light and variable winds are expected tonight into tomorrow.
Probabilistic guidance for fog and low stratus gives a less
than 1 in 10 chance during the pre-dawn hours and opted to
continue omission of any such restrictions in 00z TAFs.

Upper ridge slowly breaks down tomorrow, allowing for slightly
more coverage in showers and storms Sun afternoon. Highest
confidence is across the coastal plain, and included a PROB30
for those sites.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...Generally VFR conditions expected through
the long term. Daily tstorm chances could bring reduced vis and
cigs, with the highest likelihood Wednesday PM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday night/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

Key Messages

 - Typical summertime pattern continues, with breezy southwest
   winds, and a risk of thunderstorms for the inland rivers and
   sounds

The next couple of days will continue to feature very typical
summertime conditions for all ENC waters. Southwest winds of
10-20kt are expected through tonight, becoming a bit more
southerly Sunday through Sunday night. Within this flow, seas of
3-4 ft will be common. Over the next couple of days, the
thunderstorm risk is expected to be fairly typical for
summertime, with the risk being focused over the inland rivers
and sounds during the afternoon and evening hours, followed by a
shift in the risk to the offshore coastal waters.

LONG TERM /Monday though Thursday/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...Monday and Tuesday pressure gradient
tightens with high strengthening offshore, and winds pick up to
become 15-30kt out of the S/SW and seas respond to be 4-6 ft.
Monday night through Tuesday will be our next best chance of
seeing small craft advisory criteria conditions for coastal
waters, Pamlico, Croatan, and Roanoke sounds.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/MS
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...MS/RJ
MARINE...RM/RJ