Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
623 FXUS62 KMHX 071147 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 747 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Depression Chantal will continue to dissipate as it lifts north of the area today. A series of mid level systems will push across the area bringing periods of unsettled weather through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 730 AM Monday... Key Messages - Typical summertime conditions to return in the wake of TD Chantal As of this morning, Tropical Depression Chantal was located along the VA/NC border NW of the Albemarle Sound, and was lifting NE towards the Chesapeake Bay area. Modest subsidence in the wake of Chantal, plus an area of mid-level drying should lead to a lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms today compared to the past couple of days. The main forcing mechanism looks to be the seabreeze, with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible. The above-mentioned subsidence should tend to limit the risk of deeper convection, and it appears the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms will remain LOW. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Monday... The risk of convection should shift offshore as is common this time of year, with lows falling into the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 0430 Monday... Weak ridging builds across the area Tuesday but could see isolated to widely scattered showers bringing locally heavy rainfall Tuesday afternoon and evening. SPC has Wern portions of the FA in a marginal risk of severe storms mainly for damaging wind gusts with moderate instability on the order of 2-3kJ/kg mlCAPE, however bulk shear will be meager. A similar set up for Wednesday afternoon means a similar threat of strong to severe storms exists over the coastal plain, but shear will be on the downward trend. A series of shortwave troughs will push across the region mid to late week continuing to bring an unsettled pattern across the region. With high PW values, the greatest threat from the storms will be heavy rainfall. At this time, instability and shear parameters do not look overly impressive for severe storms to develop but could see a few storms producing strong wind gusts. With increasing thicknesses due to the building ridge, the warmest temps of the long term look to be Tuesday and Wednesday (with Tuesday being the hottest) with MaxTs in the low 90s inland from the coast and peak heat index values around 100-105. Monitor the forecast, as there is potential for heat advisory issuance. Otherwise temps expected to be near or a couple of degrees below climo. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 12z Tuesday/... As of 730 AM Monday... Key Messages - MVFR conditions to linger this morning - Lower risk of TSRA today - Gusty southwest winds (20-25kt) through this afternoon Tropical Depression Chantal, currently located along the VA/NC state line north of the Albemarle Sound, will lift NE into the Chesapeake Bay area today. As it moves away from ENC, an area of mid-level drying and modest subsidence should keep the risk of SHRA and TSRA lower compared to the past couple of days. In light of this, I`ve removed all mention of precip for the TAFs for now. Prior to the drier air moving in, there will continue to be bands of low CIGs pivoting through the area, keeping a risk of MVFR conditions at play through at least mid morning. By late morning, VFR conditions are expected to prevail areawide. Sub VFR conditions will be possible with any SHRA or TSRA that develops today. Regarding winds through this afternoon, it looks like there will be enough of a residual gradient on the southern periphery of Chantal to maintain a risk of gusty SW winds, especially through mid-afternoon. Lighter winds are then expected by this evening. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 0430 Monday...A series of mid- level systems will push across the region mid to late week continuing to bring the threat of showers and storms with reduced flight cats. Late night and early morning fog and stratus will also be possible most mornings. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 0430 Monday...Chantal, or what`s left of it, will lift NNEward toward DelMarVa Monday. SWerly winds 15-20G25-30kt continue today, strongest this afternoon when tightest thermal gradient sets up. Seas will gradually subside from 4-6 to 3-5 ft through the day. Continue with SCAs for all but the Albemarle sound and the rivers but could see occasional gusts to around 25 kt here but not frequent enough to warrant an SCA at this time. Begin to step down SCAs from S to N around sunset tonight as winds ease some to 10-20kt. Offshore shower possibility wanes through the morning. Seabreeze showers and storms possible for nearshore and inside waters this afternoon. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 4 PM Sun...High pressure remains centered over the Wern Atlantic this week with a series of systems pushing across the area. This will keep gradients somewhat pinched with SW winds around 10-20 kt, highest in the late afternoon and evening with thermal gradient peaking. Seas generally around 3-4 ft during the long term period, however the dominant period through at least midweek will be on the shorter wind wave side, 5-6sec. So, expect bumpy 3-4ft wind waves out of the S/SW on top of 1-2ft long period swell on the order of 13-15sec out of the east. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196- 199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ135-150- 152-231. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ154. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ156. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RM SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...CEB AVIATION...RM/CEB MARINE...CEB