636
FXUS62 KMHX 070209
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1009 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging centered in the Atlantic continues to
extend west towards the Eastern Seaboard into next week. A cold
front will approach ENC from the west tonight and on Sunday
before stalling and eventually dissipating across the Piedmont
Sunday evening into Monday. Increased chances of precip will
remain possible through Sunday before the front dissipates.
More diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity is then
forecast from early in the week to about midweek before the next
front approaches and interacts with moisture from the remnants
of Beryl bringing increased precipitation chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 1010 PM Sat...As advertised, convection is quickly falling
apart and trimmed PoPs back farther to the far inner coastal
plain. Expect further deterioration in the near term with most
of NC likely dry by midnight. Still watching for the nocturnal
maximum of convection over offshore waters, but latest hi-res
guidance suggests coverage may not be as widespread as forecast.
With a solid rainfall footprint from Little Washington to
Jacksonville, freshly saturated soils may provide fodder for low
stratus and/or patchy fog early Sunday morning, although the
latter will depend on how much cirri clears out. We remain warm
and muggy tonight once again with lows getting down into the
mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sat... Almost another rinse and repeat forecast
for tomorrow, though temps will be a bit lower. Weakening cold
front is forecast to begin to dissipate over the Piedmont while
seabreeze sets up in the afternoon once again. Much like on Sat
shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop along
the seabreeze and out ahead of the aforementioned front. With
PWAT`s remaining around 2+ inches and with 500-1500 J/kg of
SBCAPE around the area showers and thunderstorms are forecast
with any activity that develops bringing a threat for localized
flash flooding and gusty winds. Otherwise temps are slightly
cooler on Sun getting into the upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sat...Typical summertime pattern expected through
early next week, shifting to a wetter pattern mid to late week.
Temps will remain near climo.

A cold front will stall or dissipate west of the area, while
weak upper low offshore drifts towards the SE coast through
early next week. This boundary will likely do little, except to
possibly aid in shower/tstm development. Seabreeze, inland
troughing, and waves rotating through the upper trough to the
WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the
forecast Sunday into early next week. Did increase pops a bit
Sunday afternoon, especially north of the Pamlico Rvr where high
res guidance shows better convective coverage, near area of
better instability. Expect convective chances to be near or
slightly above climo Monday and Tuesday, with better chances for
more widespread coverage mid to late next week. Another front
will approach late next week, possibly stalling near or over the
area as weak waves develop along it which may interact with
moisture from the remnants of Beryl. Still too much uncertainty
this far out, so will continue to cap pops at chance through the
period. At this time it looks like the lack of shear should
limit overall svr threat. However, periods of moderate to heavy
rain will be possible, especially later in the period with PWATs
potentially creeping towards 2.5". Temps look to be near climo,
with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s each day and overnight
lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Sun/...
As of 750 PM Sat...Shower and thunderstorm activity remains
confined to our west this evening with VFR conditions prevailing
under a thin shield of convective cirri. Heaviest rainfall today
fell along a OCW-EWN-OAJ line, and this zone will be the focus
for the best low stratus and fog potential where soil moisture
will be most favorable. Reliable guidance hints at this
scenario, although it is erroneously painting the highest QPF
footprint to the north and west. Offered the most aggressive
forecast for EWN and OAJ explicitly showing IFR, while MVFR with
sct IFR clouds carry for ISO and PGV. Am watching for any last
minute rainfall from the aforementioned cluster of storms as it
slowly migrates eastward, which could improve odds for IFR cigs.

Rinse and repeat forecast tomorrow with another round of showers
and thunderstorms developing in an otherwise VFR regime. Winds
remain light through the day at around 5 kt, although some
spotty gusts to 15 kt are possible immediately behind the
seabreeze.

LONG TERM /Sat afternoon through Thursday/...
As of 240 AM Sat...Sct shower/tstm chances expected through the
next several days, peaking during max heating each afternoon
and evening, which could bring periods of sub-VFR to the
terminals. Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible each
night, with increased chances for areas that receive rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Sat... Winds have not gotten as high as previously
expected thanks to widespread clouds and thunderstorm activity
across the Coastal Plain capping temps for the most part which
has allowed the thermal gradient to remain rather weak. Will
keep ongoing SCA`s up for another few hours just in case gusts
come up but won`t be surprised if SCA`s are expired at 7PM.
Otherwise 10-20 kt S`rly winds with gusts up around 20-25 kts
and 2-4 ft seas persist across our waters this afternoon. As we
get into tonight winds ease slightly but remain S`rly persisting
at 10-15 kts through Sun afternoon. Seas will lower slightly as
well tonight down to 2 to 3 ft. The one caveat to this
otherwise pleasant boating conditions will be the constant
threat for isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity which could lead to locally enhanced winds and seas.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through THursday/...
As of 240 AM Sat...Overall pleasant boating conditions expected
through the period. Typical summertime pattern sets up with
high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc trough inland.
S-SW winds 5-15 kt Sun through Wed with seas 2-3 ft,
occasionally up to 4 ft across the outer waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday
     evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...CQD/RCF