Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
398 FXUS62 KMHX 032316 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 716 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Frontal boundary approaches ENC today, with chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze this afternoon. High pressure builds in from the west through the holiday weekend with the frontal boundary stalling off the Southeast coast. There is a chance for tropical development along this stalled boundary later this weekend, which is expected to bring increased rain chances into next week. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 2 PM Thursday... Key messages: - Lower coverage of showers and storms this afternoon and evening, although risk of isolated flash flooding remains. Surface frontal boundary remains stalled over the Piedmont of NC, leaving eastern NC in weak southerly but warm and muggy flow. Front is forecast to edge eastward through the overnight, eventually stalling off the Southeast US coast. Shower/thunderstorm coverage is expected to be much less than yesterday; however, with PWATs still between 1.50-2" and very slow forecast storm motions, periods of heavy rainfall are still in the cards with a risk of isolated flash flooding. Most favored area for convection is along and east of the Highway 17 corridor, along the slow moving sea breeze. Additional development is possible upstream along the stalled and diffuse frontal boundary across central NC and southeast VA. Some of the latest high-res guidance shows a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms making it to our northwest counties, so have added slight chance PoPs through the afternoon. Convection will gradually dissipate this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. Mostly clear skies are expected, with lows falling into the low to mid-70s. Similar to last night, winds are expected to remain light, a moist boundary layer. Thus, conditions are expected to be favorable for at least some patchy fog overnight. Any fog is expected to quickly mix out early Friday morning after sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 2 PM Thursday...A mid-level shortwave rounding the base of a closed low over southern Quebec will push a weak reinforcing cold front south into our CWA early Friday. Renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible along this front and the sea breeze, with current high-res guidance indicating coverage may be slightly greater than today. Highs are forecast around 90, with max apparent temperatures in the upper-90s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 2 PM Thursday... Key Messages - Increasing tropical moisture ahead of a weak area of low pressure will lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend - Tropical or subtropical development is possible this weekend/early next week off the southeast coast High pressure will remain to the north and east this weekend, but increasing tropical moisture from the south will lead to building chances of showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Rain chances will be highest (40-55%) over southern NC Saturday with with a tight gradient to mostly dry conditions along and north of US 64. Better rain chances expected Sunday as moisture overspreads all of ENC. Heavy rain will be possible with PWATs surging above 2.5". A low pressure system is then forecast to develop along a stalled boundary near Florida or the southeast coast over the weekend. NHC is giving this disturbance a 60% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression with guidance showing north or northeastward movement thereafter. A lot of uncertainty remains, but regardless of where this system ultimately moves, higher than normal daily rain chances can be expected through mid-week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Fri/... As of 715 PM Thurs...Widespread VFR conditions are noted across the CWA this evening with just a few isolated pop up showers ongoing along the seabreeze near Jacksonville. Any leftover shower activity should quickly dissipate by about 00Z and bring little in the way of impacts to the area. As we get into tonight light and variable winds are expected and with low level moisture pooling out ahead of a weak front, there is at least a low end threat for some patchy fog. Current HREF probs have a 30-50% chance a vis less than 5 miles while NBM has 20-40% chances of this occuring. As a result and slightly higher confidence of at least some patchy fog, have included some MVFR vis or a SCT005 cloud deck at all TAF sites starting between 04-07Z. Fog threat will likely remain along the Coastal Plain and remain along and west of about Hwy 17. Any patchy fog that does develop will quickly burn off by 12Z with VFR conditions expected through at least 18Z. Tomorrow, light northeasterly winds are expected with a chance of showers/thunderstorms Fri late morning and afternoon along the sea breeze and a weak cold front.THis could bring brief period of sub-VFR conditions but given low confidence in exact impacts at all TAF sites have kept TAF`s tstm free on this update. LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/... As of 2 PM Thursday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through Friday. Increasing rain chances this weekend through early next week will introduce a threat for extended periods of sub-VFR conditions, with the best chances during the afternoon and evening each day. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 2 PM Thurs... Key Messages - Good boating conditions through the 4th of July with light winds and only scattered rain chances Winds are still light and variable early this afternoon, but will eventually turn to the S/SW at 5-15 by late this afternoon. Overnight winds again become light and variable, and then shift to the ENE/NE tomorrow at 5-15 kts. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft. LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/... As of 2 PM Thurs...Winds will be generally ESE to SE at 10-20 kts Saturday and Sunday, and shift to the SW Monday and Tuesday. During this time a weak low will move along the SE coast, and could acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics. If this occurs and it were to strengthen, stronger winds to Gale/Tropical Storm force would be possible across the marine waters. Regardless of development, hazardous seas may develop due to the long southerly fetch, and Small Craft Advisories may be needed sometime early next week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...ZC SHORT TERM...ZC LONG TERM...SGK/OJC AVIATION...SGK/RCF/ZC MARINE...SGK