631
FXUS62 KMHX 052055
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
455 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Newly named Tropical Storm Chantal will drift towards the
Carolinas this weekend, bringing an increased chance of showers
and thunderstorms, including the risk of locally heavy
rainfall, through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 2 PM Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Waves of showers and thunderstorms expected to continue
  through the night, with the potential for locally heavy rain
  and an isolated tornado or two, as Tropical Storm Chantal
  drifts towards the Carolinas.

Latest analysis depicts a closed low over the Gulf Coast
underneath ridging over the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. At the
surface, Tropical Storm Chantal (named this morning) is drifting
slowly northward roughly 150 miles south-southeast of
Charleston, SC.

The slow progression of Chantal will allow for multiple days of
moderate to heavy rainfall potential. A band of scattered
showers and thunderstorms is currently pushing through the
northern tier of the forecast area, and latest high-res guidance
shows the potential for additional bands of showers and
thunderstorms to push onshore and through ENC tonight into
tomorrow morning, with the best chances along and south of a
Hatteras-to-Kinston line and especially along the Crystal
Coast. Latest high-res guidance forecasts low-level wind fields
to gradually become more favorable overnight, with CAMs
supporting an increase in 0-1 km SRH to 100-200 m2/s2. Coupled
MLCAPE of around 500-1000 J/kg, this will yield the risk for
transient supercell structures and an isolated tornado or two.
SPC currently has the far southwestern coastline in a Marginal
Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather tonight. In addition, PWATs
of 2.00-2.25"+ will yield a risk for locally heavy rainfall and
isolated flash flooding. WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall for most of the region today.

Outside of showers and thunderstorm chances, expansive cloud
cover is forecast to keep temps slightly warmer than last night,
with lows forecast in the low-to-mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Key Messages:

- Waves of showers and thunderstorms expected to continue
  through Sunday night/early Monday morning as Tropical Storm
  Chantal continues to drift north/northwestward. Locally heavy
  rainfall is possible with thunderstorms, and an isolated
  tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- Chantal is forecast to transition northeastward across ENC
  while progressively weakening Sunday night/Monday morning. The
  highest wind impacts for our area are expected during this
  time, with the potential for wind gusts to 40 mph for some
  locations.

As of 2 PM Saturday...Heaviest rainfall of the day is expected
late tonight and into tomorrow morning as Chantal and
associated deep tropical moisture (PWATs of 2"+) continue to
lift north and west, with the current expectation for landfall
along the northern SC coast late morning or early afternoon on
Sunday. Following landfall, Chantal is expected to turn
northeastward as it moves across eastern NC through Sunday and
into Monday.

Like today, most likely area for heavy to torrential
rainfall will be focused along the Crystal Coast and the Outer
Banks south of Cape Hatteras where convergence will be enhanced
along the stalled frontal boundary, but the potential for heavy
rainfall will be present across all of ENC, with WPC maintaining
a Marginal ERO for the forecast area tomorrow. Storm total
rainfall through Monday morning will likely range from 1-3", but
HREF LPMM guidance continues to suggest local maxima of up to
4".

After increasing tonight, CAMs show low-level shear profiles
becoming marginally less supportive of any tornado risk during
the day tomorrow as modest boundary layer mixing increases.
Despite this, CAM forecasts indicate 0-1 km SRH values of up to
100 m2/s2 will remain present during the day tomorrow amidst
modest instability of 1000-1500 J/kg. Thus, an isolated tornado
or two cannot be ruled out within the thunderstorm activity in
the rainbands associated with Chantal tomorrow. SPC currently
has the southwestern portions of the forecast area in a Marginal
(level 1/5) risk for Sunday.

Given expansive cloud cover and precipitation chances, highs are
forecast to be lower tomorrow, topping out in the mid-80s.
Easterly winds will veer southeasterly throughout the day,
becoming gustier towards the afternoon/evening.

The center of Chantal will approach the southwestern portions of
the CWA tomorrow evening and is expected to transition eastward
across the forecast area through Sunday evening and into Monday
as it progressively weakens. While precipitation is currently
to be more isolated Sunday evening, PWATs are expected to remain
elevated above 2", allowing the threat for isolated heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding to persist into Monday
night. Low-level shear profiles are again forecast to strengthen
during the overnight hours as mixing subsides, with CAMs
depicting 0-1 km SRH increasing to 100-150 m2/s2. With MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg, the threat for an isolated tornado or two will
linger through the overnight hours on Sunday.

With the center of the Tropical Storm passing through the area,
the greatest wind impacts for our area are expected during this
time (Sunday night into Monday morning). Winds will turn
southeasterly ahead of Chantal, increasing to 20-30 mph as the
storm passes. Locations closest to the storm (and coastal marine
areas) are likely to see locally higher gusts to 40 mph. In
response, SCA`s have been expanded to now include the waters
from Cape Hatteras to Oregon Inlet and the Pamlico Sound. Will
continue to monitor the potential for additional SCAs for the
northern waters and the remaining inland rivers/sounds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 PM Saturday...

Key Messages

 - Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall possible this
   week

TS Chantal will weaken across the NC coastal plain Monday and
slowly lift northward Monday night and Tuesday. Periods of heavy
rainfall will continue to be possible on Monday with PW values
around 2" or greater. Weak ridging builds across the area Monday
night and Tuesday but could see isolated to scattered showers
bringing locally heavy rainfall. A series of shortwave trough
will push across the region mid to late week continuing to bring
an unsettled weather across the region. With high PW values,
the greatest threat from the storms will be heavy rainfall.
At this time, instability and shear parameters do not look
overly impressive for severe storms to develop but could see a
few storms producing strong wind gusts. The warmest temps of the
long term look to be Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the low
90s inland from the coast and heat index values around 100-105,
otherwise temps expected to be near or a couple of degrees
below climo.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 2 PM Saturday...VFR conditions currently observed at all
terminals as of 230 PM Saturday, with some scattered
showers/thunderstorms noted in the PGV vicinity. Expectation is
for these showers/thunderstorms to continue to push off to the
west over the next 1-2 hours. Most current guidance depicts
lower chances of precip through the rest of the evening. Given
that chances remain non-zero though, have opted to continue to
hold PROB30 groups through ~00Z for all terminals. High-res
guidance then continues to show additional bands of
showers/thunderstorms pushing onshore overnight tonight, with
MVFR ceilings expected to spread northward after 00Z tonight.
Shower/thunderstorm activity looks to increase further in
coverage tomorrow morning as Chantal continues to drift
north/northwestward. Deep plume of tropical moisture associated
with the storm will bring the potential for heavy rainfall with
thunderstorms, which could bring locally lower flight categories
and visibility restrictions.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 315 PM Saturday...TS Chantal will lift into the coastal
plain Sunday night and gradually dissipate as it slowly lifts
northward bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms bringing
sub-VFR flight cats. A series of mid-level systems will push
across the region mid to late week continuing to bring the
threat of showers and storms with reduced flight cats. Late
night and early morning fog and stratus will also be possible
most mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 4 PM Saturday...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...

 - Tropical Storm Chantal will bring hazardous marine
   conditions through Monday

Tropical Storm Chantal is currently located approx 185 mi south
of Wilmington, NC this afternoon and will slowly lift NNW
toward the SC coast, making landfall early Sunday morning, and
then slowly dissipate wile lifting across the Carolina coastal
plain Sunday into Monday. Currently seeing E to SE winds around
5-15 kt across much of the waters with 15-20 and gusts up to 25
kt across northern Onslow Bay. Seas have built to around 3-6 ft
today as well, highest across Onslow Bay. Similar conditions
expected tonight, then will deteriorate further Sunday into
Monday as Chantal passes to the west of the waters bringing S to
SE winds around 15-25 kt and gust to around 30 kt, and could
see occasional gusts to around 35 kt. Seas will also build to
4-7 ft tonight and continue into early Monday before gradually
subsiding late Monday. Have expanded the SCA north to Oregon
Inlet and to include the Pamlico Sound with the afternoon
package and could see expansion to other waters depending on the
eventual strength and track of Chantal. At this time thinking
is that TS force winds will remain south of the waters outside
of occasional gusts but again any unexpected strengthening or
track shift could change that.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
As of 4 PM Saturday...High pressure remains centered over the
western Atlantic next week with a series of systems pushing
across the area. This will keep gradients somewhat pinched with
SW winds around 10-20 kt and seas around 2-4 ft currently
forecast during the long term period. However, some guidance is
suggesting low end SCA could occur at times during the middle of
next week, especially in gusts.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     199.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/ZC
MARINE...SK