064
FXUS62 KMHX 041942
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
342 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain centered offshore through the
weekend bringing return flow and oppressive heat and humidity
to the area. At the same time a weakening cold front will
approach from the west this weekend and eventually stall over
the Eastern Seaboard before dissipating Sunday into Monday. This
will bring increased chances for showers and thunderstorms
Saturday and Sunday with daily chances for afternoon showers
and storms persisting into the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Thurs... Not much change to the forecast as upper level
ridging will remain overhead while surface ridging will be centered
offshore. This will keep flow S`rly and advect a warm and moist
airmass over ENC with dewpoints now in the upper 60s to low 70s
across the area and PWAT`s approaching 2.0 inches. As expected,
temps have warmed into the low to mid 90s across the Coastal Plain
and closer to the mid to upper 80s along the coast and OBX. Combined
with the humidity, it feels closer to 95-100 in places this
afternoon bringing the threat for heat related impacts to the CWA.
Seabreeze is currently working its way inland as of this update with
widespread diurnal CU field noted out ahead of the seabreeze.
Finally, latest radar imagery shows ongoing isolated to widely
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity off to the north and west
of ENC this afternoon in association with a surface trough
located over the Piedmont.

As we get into this evening, shower and thunderstorm activity off to
the west will continue to march E`wards eventually nearing the
Coastal Plain near sunset. As of this update some uncertainty still
remains with how far east ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity
makes it, especially given lack of forcing this far east as
well as the loss of instability as the activity nears ENC
towards sunset. Even so, with 12Z Hi-Res model suite showing at
least some activity surviving long enough to make its way into
the Coastal Plain and HREF ensemble probs of >0.01 inch of
rainfall across the coastal Plain hanging around 20-40% kept
SChc PoP`s in the forecast through about 2AM. Otherwise mostly
to partly cloudy skies are forecast for much of the night as mid
and some low level clouds make their way through the CWA. Lows
this evening are slightly warmer than last nights as light S`rly
flow continues to advect a warm and moist airmass N`wards
across ENC with low temps getting into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 330PM Thursday... Not much change in the upper or surface
pattern for Friday as upper ridging remains centered over the
Southeast and surface ridging remains centered offshore with a
thermal trough setting up across the Piedmont once again Fri
afternoon. This will bring our first threat for oppressive heat
and humidity this weekend as S`rly flow continues to advect
moisture N`wards allowing dewpoints to creep up into the 70s
across ENC while low level thicknesses support temps in the mid
to upper 90s inland and upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and
OBX. Combined with the humidity it will feel like its closer to
105-110 across the Coastal Plain and 95-100 across coastal
locations. With this in mind have elected to put up heat
advisories for our inland zones as the highest confidence for
reaching criteria is noted here. Make sure to drink plenty of
fluids and limit strenuous outdoor activity if you plan to be
outside for extended periods of time on Friday given this threat
for heat related impacts. Otherwise much like Thursday, shower
and thunderstorm activity should begin to develop across the
Piedmont in the afternoon and spread E`wards eventually reaching
the Coastal Plain in the mid to late afternoon timeframe. With
Hi-Res model support and ensemble probability`s showing a
>30-40% chance for precip tomorrow afternoon have kept SChc
PoP`s and a thunder threat in for tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM Thu...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Oppressive heat and humidity returns late week and this
  weekend
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly diurnally driven,
  return this weekend into next week

Our most impactful weather likely occurs this weekend as
oppressive heat and humidity sets up across the Southeast once
again. Upper ridging will remain overhead, while at the surface,
high pressure will remain anchored offshore allowing SSW flow
and deeper moisture to return to the area. Temps will grad warm
late week into the weekend allowing for oppressive heat and
humidity to return. High temps will soar into the mid to upper
90s inland, upper 80s to low 90s for the beaches, combined with
dewpoints climbing back up into the 70s. This will likely lead
to heat index values peaking at 105-110 deg for many areas, esp
Sat.

A cold front will approach the area this weekend and early next
week, but will likely stall or dissipate west of the area, while
weak upper low offshore drifts towards the SE coast. This
boundary will likely do little, except to possibly aid in
shower/tstm development. Seabreeze, inland troughing, and
waves rotating through the upper trough to the WNW will keep
mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the forecast this
weekend into next week. Will continue to cap pops at chance.
At this time it looks like the lack of shear should limit
overall svr threat.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Friday/...
As of 115 PM Thurs...Latest obs across ENC show a mix of high
cirrus and diurnal Cu this afternoon. Ceilings across the
Coastal Plain remain VFR with heights around 3.5-5 kft. Light
S-SE`rly winds are currently noted but as a seabreeze develops
expect at least a brief period of gusty SSE`rly winds primarily
across terminals closer to the coast (EWN/OAJ) with gusts up
around 15-20 kts later today. Otherwise ENC primarily remains
dry thru this afternoon. However, as we get towards sunset and
the early evening hours shower and thunderstorm activity is
forecast to enter into the Coastal Plain from the west in
association with a trough across the Piedmont. Latest Hi-Res
guidance only suggests a 10-20% chance of precip occuring
across the Coastal Plain as much if not all of the activity
should be dissipating as it nears the area, but kept VCSH in PGV
where there is a ~20% chance of the showers and/or
thunderstorms persisting as they move eastward. Whether showers
dissipate or not, there will be an increase in cloud cover
Thursday night, although current expectation is for ceilings to
be VFR. There is a 10-20% chance of MVFR ceilings developing. As
a result kept in a FEW/SCT deck at 3kft across the western
terminals where best chance for lower ceilings exist. If lower
ceilings down develop then light winds and VFR conditions are
forecast for the remainder of the period.

LONG TERM /Friday afternoon through Tuesday/...
As of 245 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Sct diurnal shower/tstm chances return this weekend and
early next week, which could bring periods of sub-VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 330 PM Thurs...Overall benign weather is forecast to
start the period as latest obs show widespread 2-4 ft seas and
5-15 kt S-SSW winds across our waters this afternoon. Expecting
little in the way of change through Fri morning as 2-4 ft seas
and 5-15 kt SSW`rly winds will persist. However, as we get into
Fri afternoon a thermal trough looks to set up across North
Carolina which will tighten the pressure gradient slightly as
this trough interacts with ridging offshore. As it stands now
this should allow for a brief uptick in the winds to 15-20 kts
with at least a few gusts near 25 kts at times especially across
the Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and northern Coastal waters.
For now however, will hold off on any SCA`s as HREF probs of
gusts greater than 25 kts is low 10-30% across these waters but
SCA`s may become necessary tonight if things trend up overnight.
Otherwise, as winds increase seas will build as well up to 3 to
5 ft Fri afternoon.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 245 AM Thu...Typical summertime pattern expected through
the period with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc
trough inland. SSW winds 10-20 kt expected Fri into Sat,
strongest during the late afternoon and evening. There is
potential for a brief period of 25 kt gusts late Fri afternoon
and Fri night, which could bring SCA conditions. S-SE winds 5-15
kt Sun and Mon. Seas generally 2-4 ft through the period, with
potential for 5 ft across the outer waters Fri night into Sat.
May continue to see longer period swells from very distant
Hurricane Beryl through Fri, though should have little impact on
wave heights.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ029-044>046-
     079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF