Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
938 FXUS62 KMHX 111904 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 304 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... General summertime troughing is expected to remain in place through early next. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 2 PM Friday... Key Messages - Thunderstorm risk expected to be focused along the coast through this evening - Patchy fog possible late tonight/early Saturday morning With mid-level ridging to our west, westerly flow aloft is ushering in drier air. This flow should help keep today`s seabreeze pinned closer to the coast and keep the majority of shower and thunderstorm development east of Highway 17. According to the latest SPC mesoanalysis, the heating of our residually moist boundary layer has generated 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE across our CWA. Although this is plenty of instability to generate some stronger updrafts, deep layer shear is very low, which will limit the possibility of storms becoming severe. However, with drier air aloft today, storms may be able to produce some stronger gusts. The bigger story is the potential for more heavy rain IF storms are able to develop. With PWATs still 2+" east of Highway 17, any storm will be capable of producing torrential rain and localized flooding. Yesterday`s heavy rain caused flooding across the NOBX and Onslow County, so these areas will be most susceptible to flooding today if convection is able to develop. Things will quiet down after sunset with attention then turning to the potential for fog late tonight/early tomorrow morning. With a moist boundary layer, light winds, and mostly clear skies, radiation fog may develop across the coastal plain but should burn off shortly after sunrise tomorrow morning. Lows tonight will be in the mid-70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... As of 2:15 PM Friday... A building mid-level ridge and drier air aloft will keep shower and thunderstorm coverage even more scattered tomorrow with diurnal activity likely limited to sea/river/sound breezes. Although PWATs will be slightly lower than today (1.5-2"), heavy rain will still be possible from any stronger storm that develops. WPC has the entire area outlined in a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall (at least a 5% chance of flash flooding). We`ll destabilize with afternoon heating and develop 1000-2000+ J/kg but shear will be lacking once again, so the threat for storms to become severe is low. Slightly warmer temps tomorrow (mid-80s to low-90s) will pair with dewpoints in the mid-70s to generate heat indices in the mid-90s to low-100s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 AM Fri...We remain in a summer like pattern through the long term period with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Upper level trough in the High Plains on Sat will gradually push E`wards into the Northeast by early next week. While upper level ridging off the coast of the Southeast retrogrades westwards into the Deep South with the approach of an upper level low. As we get into mid to late next week, another upper trough pushes across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast while upper ridging becomes entrenched across the Deep South, and the previously mentioned upper low becomes stationary near the Bahamas. At the mid levels, we will have multiple weak mid level shortwaves track across the Carolinas on Sat and Sun with a stronger mid level shortwave then pushing into the area on Mon into Tue eventually stalling across the Eastern Seaboard through about midweek. We will see a chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms on and Sun. PWATs generally remain around 1.5-2.0 inches through the weekend, and this will be relatively low compared to previous days as some dry air associated with an approaching backdoor cold front infiltrates the area. This dry air will also likely limit shower and thunderstorm coverage this weekend with any sea/lake/sound breezes being the primary driver of convective activity given the lack of significant forcing. One caveat to this, is that we could see some enhanced convergence along a weak backdoor front on Sat which could bring higher than currently forecast shower and thunderstorm chances on Sat before the boundary dissipates. Moisture then pools and PWATs surge to greater than 2 inches across the area early next week as the previously mentioned incoming shortwave early next week pulls moisture northwards from the Gulf. This will result in a better chance at more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity as better forcing overspreads ENC. With PWATS remaining elevated and having ample deep layer moisture in place, any thunderstorm that develops over the next few days will bring a threat for heavy to excessive rainfall. Combined with the already wet ground from previous days activity, there will at least be a low end threat for some isolated flash flooding. As a result, WPC has placed the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall this weekend. While there will be a lack of wind shear across ENC over the next several days, 1000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place each day bringing the potential for sub-severe wind gusts within the strongest storms. High temps each day range from the upper 80s to low 90s with the hottest temps over the weekend. While we are not expected to reach heat advisory criteria this weekend, with heat indices around 100-105 F on Sat and Sun, any prolonged outdoor exposure could become hazardous to more vulnerable groups. Lows through the entire long term remain in the mid 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 12z Saturday/... As of 1:30 PM Friday... Key Messages - Isolated to widely scattered TSRA possible - BR/MIFG possible late tonight/early Saturday morning - Scattered TSRA possible Saturday Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through early evening with the greatest chances being east of Highway 17. If any convection does develop, storms will be capable of producing heavy rain and gusty winds. With a moist boundary layer, light winds, and mostly clear skies, radiation fog may develop across the coastal plain. Confidence in fog development has increased given a more pessimistic trend in the guidance today. With the 18Z TAFs, 5SM MIFG has been added to PGV, OAJ, and ISO between 08-12/13z Saturday. Fog should burn off shortly after sunrise with light variable winds and few/scattered low clouds lingering through the remainder of the period. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 3 AM Fri...Several mid level shortwaves will track across ENC through early next week. This will continue to bring a daily threat for showers and thunderstorms as well as sub-VFR conditions. Reduced vis and ceilings from this activity is possible. Though will note, best chances to see shower and thunderstorm activity will be on Mon/Tue as the strongest in a set of mid level shortwaves pushes through the area and moisture pools out ahead of it. If it does rain then there will also be a fog and low stratus threat each night as well for areas that see meaningful rainfall. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 1:40 PM Friday...10-15 kt SW winds will persist until early tomorrow morning when a weak backdoor cold front will veer the winds north of Cape Hatteras to the north by sunrise and to the east by the afternoon. Winds will be lighter in the morning (5-10 kt) but increase to ~10 kt in the afternoon. Seas will be 3-4 ft through tomorrow morning and then decrease to 2-3 by tomorrow afternoon. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible today with lower chances tomorrow. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 3 AM Fri...With little change in the surface pattern through this weekend and early next week, expect rather benign boating conditions across our waters through the period. Winds become SW`rly across all waters at 5-10 kts by Sun as aforementioned back door cold front dissipates. Winds change little into Tuesday. Seas persist around 2-4 ft with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing as well. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ204- 205. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...OJC SHORT TERM...OJC LONG TERM...RCF AVIATION...RCF/OJC MARINE...RCF/OJC