624
FXUS62 KMHX 051400
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain centered offshore through the
weekend bringing return flow and oppressive heat and humidity
to the area. At the same time a weakening cold front will
approach from the west this weekend and eventually stall over
the Eastern Seaboard before dissipating Sunday into Monday. This
will bring increased chances for showers and thunderstorms
Saturday and Sunday with daily chances for afternoon showers
and storms persisting into the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
As of 10 AM Friday... No significant changes since the previous
update as shower activity has since pushed offshore and ENC
should remain dry over the next few hours before potential
seabreeze activity starts up. Otherwise mostly clear skies are
noted across much of ENC outside of the OBX and Crystal Coast
where some mid level cloud cover is ongoing.

Previous Discussion...As of 300 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES:
- Heat Advisory in effect from 11AM to 8PM for much of ENC
  outside of the immediate coast. Heat Indices of 105-110F
  possible inland, with Heat Indices of 95-100F possible for
  beaches.
- 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, primarily along
  and west of hwy 17 this afternoon and evening. Severe weather
  not expected.

00Z suite of high res guidance continued to show a line of
isolated to scattered showers developing along the coast early this
morning. With instability very low before sunrise, kept out any
showers from the forecast before 8am. After 8am however,
instability will be increasing as we warm up, so added a line of Schc
PoPs moving eastward and leaving exiting the coastal marine
zones by noon. Schc of thunderstorms possible along the warmer
waters of the gulf stream. Not expecting any impactful rainfall
with this line along OBX and the Crystal Coast.

Not much change in the upper or surface pattern for Friday as
upper ridging remains centered over the Southeast and surface
ridging remains centered offshore with a thermal trough setting
up across the Piedmont once again Fri afternoon. This will bring
our first threat for oppressive heat and humidity this weekend
as S`rly flow continues to advect moisture N`wards allowing
dewpoints to creep up into the low-mid 70s across ENC while low
level thicknesses support temps in the mid to upper 90s inland
and upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and OBX. Combined with
the humidity it will feel like its closer to 105-110 across the
Coastal Plain and 95-100 across coastal locations. With this in
mind have elected to continue heat advisories for our inland
zones as the highest confidence for reaching criteria is noted
here. Make sure to drink plenty of fluids and limit strenuous
outdoor activity if you plan to be outside for extended periods
of time on Friday given this threat for heat related impacts.

Shower and thunderstorm activity should begin to develop across
the Piedmont in the afternoon and spread E`wards eventually
reaching the Coastal Plain in the mid to late afternoon
timeframe ahead of the sea breeze rapidly moving through the
region with southerly flow. Increased to Chc PoPs with this
update with most hi-res guidance outside of the HRRR showing
isolated to scattered convection developing. Behind the sea
breeze conditions are more stable, and shower/tstorm development
is not expected in this region. Severe potential is low (<10%)
with any thunderstorms that develop today with weak shear.
Storms will be pulse-y in nature, and some stronger gusts as
the storms collapse are possible with DCAPEs between 700-1000
J/kg.

In addition to the heat and rain chances, a thermal gradient
will set up along NOBX, resulting in gusty conditions (25-30
mph) this afternoon and evening from Core Banks to NOBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Showers and thunderstorms quickly die
down as instability decreases after sunset. Warm night is in
store, with lows in the mid 70s inland, upper 70s for beaches.
This will not provide much relief from the heat before even
warmer temps are in store Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 250 AM Fri...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Oppressive heat and humidity continues Saturday, with heat
  index values likely peaking at 105-110 degrees for most of
  the area.

Expect oppressive heat and humidity to continue Saturday with
upper ridging aloft, and sfc high pressure anchored offshore.
High temps again will soar into the mid to upper 90s inland,
upper 80s to low 90s for the beaches, combined with dewpoints in
the 70s. This will likely lead to heat index values peaking at
105-110 deg for many areas. Heat Advisories will likely be
needed for portions of the area.

A cold front will approach the area this weekend and early next
week, but will likely stall or dissipate west of the area, while
weak upper low offshore drifts towards the SE coast. This
boundary will likely do little, except to possibly aid in
shower/tstm development. Seabreeze, inland troughing, and
waves rotating through the upper trough to the WNW will keep
mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the forecast this
weekend into next week. Expect convective chances to be near or
slightly above climo, with better chances for more widespread
coverage mid to late next week. Another front will approach the
area late next week, possibly stalling over the area as weak
waves develop along it. Still too much uncertainty this far out,
so will continue to cap pops at chance through the period.
At this time it looks like the lack of shear should limit
overall svr threat. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will be
possible, especially later in the period with PWATs potentially
creeping towards 2.5". Temps beyond Sat look to be near climo,
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s each day and overnight
lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 630 AM Friday...VFR conditions expected through the TAF
period, outside of lower ceilings or visibilities that could set
up in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Showers and tstorms setting up for TAF terminals after 2pm,
although coverage will be isolated to scattered. Gusty
conditions in store for OBX with a thermal gradient setting up
from hot conditions over land and (relatively) cooler waters off
NOBX. Southerly gusts up to 30mph are possible from 1PM to 10PM
Friday. Friday night sub-VFR ceilings are possible for OBX.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 250 AM Fri...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Sct shower/tstm chances, mainly diurnal, return this
weekend and early next week, which could bring periods of sub-
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 330 AM Friday...
KEY MESSAGES:
-Issued Small Craft Advisories for southerly gusts of 25-30kts.
 Advisories are for coastal waters between Duck and Oregon
 Inlet, Albemarle Sound, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds, Pamlico Sound,
 and Alligator River.

Benign conditions observed this morning with seas 2-4 feet, 5
feet along the gulf stream, and southerly winds 2-4 ft seas and
SSW winds 10-15G20kts. As we get into Fri afternoon a thermal
trough looks to set up across North Carolina which will tighten
the pressure gradient slightly as this trough interacts with
ridging offshore. As it stands now this should allow for a brief
uptick in the southerly winds to 15-20G25-30kts across the
Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke/Albemarle Sounds, Alligator River, and
northern Coastal waters. Issued a SCA with this update for the
aforementioned waters from 1PM Friday to 11PM Friday. HREF
suggests lingering gusts >25kts through much of Friday night
into early Saturday morning, but this seems to be too
aggressive, as thermal gradient breaks down after sunset, and
with it the driving factor for the stronger gusts. Waves
increase slightly to 3-5ft Friday afternoon, becoming 4-5 ft
Friday evening through Friday night


LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 250 AM Fri...Typical summertime pattern expected through
the period with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc
trough inland. SSW winds 10-20 kt expected Sat, strongest
during the late afternoon and evening. There is potential for a
brief period of 25 kt gusts Sat eve, which could bring short
duration marginal SCA conditions. S-SE winds 5-15 kt Sun through
Tue. Seas generally 2-4 ft through the period. Expect longer
period swells to diminish this weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>046-
     079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for AMZ131-135-150-230-231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ