008
FXUS62 KMHX 031056
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
656 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure will remain in control through
tomorrow. The high then shifts offshore Thursday through this
weekend with oppressive heat and humidity returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 655 AM Wed...Little change in the weather pattern from
yesterday as mid- level ridge axis remains centered over the
I-95 corridor while surface high pressure remains planted along
the eastern seaboard. Weak shower activity associated with the
coastal trough is beginning to weaken, but did introduce a
near-term increase in PoPs to account for trends. This should
all come to an end in no more than a couple hours.

High will slowly shift east, allowing winds to veer more east
to east-southeast. Highs today a couple degrees warmer than
yesterday with a modest uptick in low-level thicknesses,
supporting highs in the upper 80s inland and mid 80s along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM Wed...High pressure will continue to shift
offshore overnight. Weak lee troughing develops further inland
as a weak cold front shifts across the Ohio River Valley, and
winds will continue to veer southerly overnight allowing Tds to
slowly rise. Still, given near calm winds inland and mostly
clear skies another round of effective radiational cooling will
result in one final evening of relatively mild lows in the mid
60s. Along the immediate coast, temperatures hover around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 AM Wed...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Oppressive heat and humidity returns late week and this
  weekend

July 4th holiday should feature mostly dry weather and temps
near climo. CAMs show convection ongoing over central VA Thu
afternoon and evening. Expect this activity to weaken with loss
of heating as it moves eastward towards ENC. Will continue to
keep the forecast dry, though there is potential for an isolated
shower or storm to push across the northern portions of the
forecast area, best chances closer to the Albemarle Sound, after
00z.

Our most impactful weather likely occurs at the end of the week
and into the weekend as oppressive heat and humidity sets up
across the Southeast once again. Upper ridging will remain
overhead into next weekend as any upper level troughs struggle
to dig S`wards. At the surface, high pressure ridging will
continue to push further offshore through the end of the week
allowing SSW and deeper moisture to return to the area.

Temps will grad warm late week into the weekend allowing for
oppressive heat and humidity to return. High temps will soar
into the mid to upper 90s inland, upper 80s to low 90s for the
beaches, combined with dewpoints climbing back up into the 70s.
This could to heat index values peaking at 105-110 deg. A cold
front will approach the area this weekend and early next week,
but will likely stall or dissipate west of the area. This
boundary will likely do little, except to possibly aid in
shower/tstm development. Will continue a mostly dry forecast
through Thu, with climo mostly diurnally driven seabreeze pops
Fri into next week. Will continue to cap pops at chance.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12Z Thu/...
As of 655 AM Wed...As expected, spotty fog and low stratus
developed at PGV and OAJ while all other spots hold at VFR.
Restrictions will lift by 12z, giving way to another quiet
flying day with easterly winds gradually veering southeasterly
as sea breeze makes its way inland, although winds will remain
at around 5 kt through the period. For OBX, winds stay closer to
a steady 10 kt.


LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 245 AM Wed... Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Sct diurnal shower/tstm chances return this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 420 AM Wed...Pleasant boating conditions in place over
area waters as high pressure, centered off the coast of the
Delmarva Peninsula, extends southward over the Carolinas. Weak
coastal trough sits just off the Outer Banks kicking up very
spotty shower activity over Onslow Bay and the waters north of
Cape Hatteras, with a more impressive persistent shower on the
northern coast of the Albemarle Sound. This shower threat will
gradually diminish through the afternoon hours.

Regional observations show seas of 3-4 feet with winds generally
easterly at around 10 kt. Little change in this regime is
expected, although winds will steadily veer southerly through
the period as the high gradually moves offshore and lee
troughing sharpens well inland.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 245 AM Wed...Mostly benign boating conditions are
forecast for the period. Light and variable winds to start off
Thu, becoming SSE 5-15 kt in the afternoon. Typical summertime
pattern late week into the weekend, with SSW winds 10-20 kt,
strongest during the late afternoon and evening. Seas generally
2-4 ft through the period, with potential for 5 ft across the
outer waters Fri night. May continue to see longer period
swells from very distant Hurricane Beryl through Fri, though
should have little impact on wave heights.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...CQD/MS