544
FXUS62 KMHX 030818
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
418 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure will remain in control through
tomorrow. The high then shifts offshore Thursday through this
weekend with oppressive heat and humidity returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 340 AM Wed...Little change in the weather pattern from
yesterday as mid- level ridge axis remains centered over the
I-95 corridor while surface high pressure remains planted along
the eastern seaboard. Subtle coastal trough sits roughly along
the Outer Banks and is providing just enough low-level
convergence to support some spotty radar returns, although we
have little ground truth on whether rain is reaching the ground.
Kept PoPs below mentionable given dry sub-cloud layers on the
local sounding.

Coastal trough will gradually weaken as the day progresses,
along with the spotty shower coverage. High will slowly shift
east, allowing winds to veer more east to east-southeast. Highs
today a couple degrees warmer than yesterday with a modest
uptick in low-level thicknesses, supporting highs in the upper
80s inland and mid 80s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM Wed...High pressure will continue to shift
offshore overnight. Weak lee troughing develops further inland
as a weak cold front shifts across the Ohio River Valley, and
winds will continue to veer southerly overnight allowing Tds to
slowly rise. Still, given near calm winds inland and mostly
clear skies another round of effective radiational cooling will
result in one final evening of relatively mild lows in the mid
60s. Along the immediate coast, temperatures hover around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 AM Wed...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Oppressive heat and humidity returns late week and this
  weekend

July 4th holiday should feature mostly dry weather and temps
near climo. CAMs show convection ongoing over central VA Thu
afternoon and evening. Expect this activity to weaken with loss
of heating as it moves eastward towards ENC. Will continue to
keep the forecast dry, though there is potential for an isolated
shower or storm to push across the northern portions of the
forecast area, best chances closer to the Albemarle Sound, after
00z.

Our most impactful weather likely occurs at the end of the week
and into the weekend as oppressive heat and humidity sets up
across the Southeast once again. Upper ridging will remain
overhead into next weekend as any upper level troughs struggle
to dig S`wards. At the surface, high pressure ridging will
continue to push further offshore through the end of the week
allowing SSW and deeper moisture to return to the area.

Temps will grad warm late week into the weekend allowing for
oppressive heat and humidity to return. High temps will soar
into the mid to upper 90s inland, upper 80s to low 90s for the
beaches, combined with dewpoints climbing back up into the 70s.
This could to heat index values peaking at 105-110 deg. A cold
front will approach the area this weekend and early next week,
but will likely stall or dissipate west of the area. This
boundary will likely do little, except to possibly aid in
shower/tstm development. Will continue a mostly dry forecast
through Thu, with climo mostly diurnally driven seabreeze pops
Fri into next week. Will continue to cap pops at chance.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06Z Thu/...
As of 130 AM Wed...VFR conditions prevail across area terminals
today as high pressure centered off the coast of the Delmarva
Peninsula extends into the Carolinas. Main concern tonight
remains a weak signal for patchy low stratus and ground fog,
although highest probabilities are north and west of the region
closer to the VA border. Still, cannot rule out a spotty early
morning fog threat for PGV where winds will most likely and a
fog-happy OAJ based on recent observational trends.

Another quiet flying day in store after sunrise with easterly
winds gradually veering southeasterly as sea breeze makes its
way inland, although winds will remain at around 5 kt through
the period. For OBX, winds stay closer to a steady 10 kt.


LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 245 AM Wed... Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Sct diurnal shower/tstm chances return this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 420 AM Wed...Pleasant boating conditions in place over
area waters as high pressure, centered off the coast of the
Delmarva Peninsula, extends southward over the Carolinas. Weak
coastal trough sits just off the Outer Banks kicking up very
spotty shower activity over Onslow Bay and the waters north of
Cape Hatteras, with a more impressive persistent shower on the
northern coast of the Albemarle Sound. This shower threat will
gradually diminish through the afternoon hours.

Regional observations show seas of 3-4 feet with winds generally
easterly at around 10 kt. Little change in this regime is
expected, although winds will steadily veer southerly through
the period as the high gradually moves offshore and lee
troughing sharpens well inland.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 245 AM Wed...Mostly benign boating conditions are
forecast for the period. Light and variable winds to start off
Thu, becoming SSE 5-15 kt in the afternoon. Typical summertime
pattern late week into the weekend, with SSW winds 10-20 kt,
strongest during the late afternoon and evening. Seas generally
2-4 ft through the period, with potential for 5 ft across the
outer waters Fri night. May continue to see longer period
swells from very distant Hurricane Beryl through Fri, though
should have little impact on wave heights.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...CQD/MS