725
FXUS62 KMHX 061934
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
334 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging centered in the Atlantic continues to
extend west towards the Eastern Seaboard into next week. A cold
front will approach ENC from the west tonight and on Sunday
before stalling and eventually dissipating across the Piedmont
Sunday evening into Monday. Increased chances of precip will
remain possible through Sunday before the front dissipates.
More diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity is then
forecast from early in the week to about midweek before the next
front approaches and interacts with moisture from the remnants
of Beryl bringing increased precipitation chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Sat... Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
has developed along the seabreeze this afternoon from areas
around Hwy 17 and west. Biggest threat with this ongoing
activity has been heavy rain, though a wind gust in excess of
40-50 mph can`t be completely ruled out either. Otherwise fairly
widespread cloud cover persists across our inland zones and the
Crystal Coast this afternoon as a mix of thunderstorms and
diurnal Cu have overspread the region with the OBX seeing
partly cloudy skies today. As a result while heat indices have
gotten to 100-110 across the area, don`t expect them to get
much higher today.

As we go through the rest of the afternoon scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity will continue into sunset generally along
and west of Hwy 17. With PWAT`S generally remaining at or above
2 inches and SBCAPEs sitting around 2500-4000 J/kg this
afternoon the threat for isolated flash flooding and strong
wind gusts around 40-50 mph will be possible within any storm
that develops. Greatest flooding risk will be across locations
where storms remain stationary or training storms develop.

As we get into tonight the threat for scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity decreases inland but may begin to increase
along our coastal waters and the OBX. In addition to this
guidance is suggesting that low stratus will quickly filter
into the area from the west overnight as well. We remain warm
and muggy tonight once again with lows getting down into the mid
to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sat... Almost another rinse and repeat forecast
for tomorrow, though temps will be a bit lower. Weakening cold
front is forecast to begin to dissipate over the Piedmont while
seabreeze sets up in the afternoon once again. Much like on Sat
shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop along
the seabreeze and out ahead of the aforementioned front. With
PWAT`s remaining around 2+ inches and with 500-1500 J/kg of
SBCAPE around the area showers and thunderstorms are forecast
with any activity that develops bringing a threat for localized
flash flooding and gusty winds. Otherwise temps are slightly
cooler on Sun getting into the upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sat...Typical summertime pattern expected through
early next week, shifting to a wetter pattern mid to late week.
Temps will remain near climo.

A cold front will stall or dissipate west of the area, while
weak upper low offshore drifts towards the SE coast through
early next week. This boundary will likely do little, except to
possibly aid in shower/tstm development. Seabreeze, inland
troughing, and waves rotating through the upper trough to the
WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the
forecast Sunday into early next week. Did increase pops a bit
Sunday afternoon, especially north of the Pamlico Rvr where high
res guidance shows better convective coverage, near area of
better instability. Expect convective chances to be near or
slightly above climo Monday and Tuesday, with better chances for
more widespread coverage mid to late next week. Another front
will approach late next week, possibly stalling near or over the
area as weak waves develop along it which may interact with
moisture from the remnants of Beryl. Still too much uncertainty
this far out, so will continue to cap pops at chance through the
period. At this time it looks like the lack of shear should
limit overall svr threat. However, periods of moderate to heavy
rain will be possible, especially later in the period with PWATs
potentially creeping towards 2.5". Temps look to be near climo,
with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s each day and overnight
lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Sat/...
As of 130 PM Sat... Shower and thunderstorm activity has begun
to develop along the seabreeze aided by strong SBCAPE and deep
moisture over ENC. As a result have included either tempo TS or
TSRA across all terminals until about 22-23z today. MVFR
ceilings/vis will be possible within any storm and gusts up to
35 kts will be possible within the strongest thunderstorms
today. Outside of tstm activity expecting primarily VFR
conditions with ceilings remaining around 3.5-5 kft this
afternoon. As we get into tonight MVFR to IFR ceilings are
possible tonight as moisture left over from afternoon shower and
tstm activity will aid in the development of low stratus.
Currently have PGV/ISO going down to MVFR by 03Z and then IFR by
07z while areas closer to the coast get down to MVFR ceilings
by 06Z. Then have cloud cover lifting through the morning on Sun
with everywhere seeing VFR ceilings by about midday. Otherwise
continued S`rly winds with occasional gusts to about 15 kts will
be possible this afternoon before winds ease tonight.

LONG TERM /Sat afternoon through Thursday/...
As of 240 AM Sat...Sct shower/tstm chances expected through the
next several days, peaking during max heating each afternoon
and evening, which could bring periods of sub-VFR to the
terminals. Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible each
night, with increased chances for areas that receive rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Sat... Winds have not gotten as high as previously
expected thanks to widespread clouds and thunderstorm activity
across the Coastal Plain capping temps for the most part which
has allowed the thermal gradient to remain rather weak. Will
keep ongoing SCA`s up for another few hours just in case gusts
come up but won`t be surprised if SCA`s are expired at 7PM.
Otherwise 10-20 kt S`rly winds with gusts up around 20-25 kts
and 2-4 ft seas persist across our waters this afternoon. As we
get into tonight winds ease slightly but remain S`rly persisting
at 10-15 kts through Sun afternoon. Seas will lower slightly as
well tonight down to 2 to 3 ft. The one caveat to this
otherwise pleasant boating conditions will be the constant
threat for isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity which could lead to locally enhanced winds and seas.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through THursday/...
As of 240 AM Sat...Overall pleasant boating conditions expected
through the period. Typical summertime pattern sets up with
high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc trough inland.
S-SW winds 5-15 kt Sun through Wed with seas 2-3 ft,
occasionally up to 4 ft across the outer waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 07/06 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         98/1969   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    95/1969   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      100/2010   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    97/1990   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         105/1900   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     99/1977   (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-
     044-045-079-080-090-091.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ046-047-081-
     092-094-193-194-198.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135-
     150-231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF
CLIMATE...MHX