252
FXUS62 KMHX 071101
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
701 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall to the west today giving us rain chances,
eventually dissipating across the Piedmont tonight into Monday.
More diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity is then
forecast from early in the week to about midweek before the next
front approaches and interacts with moisture from the remnants
of Beryl bringing increased precipitation chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 700 AM Sunday...A line of showers and thunderstorms have
set up along the coastal trough offshore of OBX this morning.
Current expectation is for this line to remain offshore,
although a few errant showers and thunderstorms approaching OBX
are not out of the question. Brought PoPs down for OBX and areas
west through the morning. Warm and muggy right now with temps
in the mid to upper 70s inland, near 80 for beaches.

Almost another rinse and repeat forecast for today, though
temps will be a bit lower, below any heat headline criteria.
Weakening cold front is forecast to begin to dissipate over the
Piedmont while seabreeze sets up in the afternoon once again.
Much like on Sat shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to
develop along the seabreeze moving inland. Hi-res guidance is
also showing a cluster of storms originating to our north,
generally west of the Albemarle Sound, moving southward through
the evening into Martin, Pitt, Washington, and Beaufort
counties. This cluster of storms will collide with the sea
breeze between 5-8PM, likely increasing thunderstorm coverage.
With PWAT`s remaining around 2+ inches, low magnitude corfidi
upshear vectors, DCAPEs 700-1000, and with 1000-2000 J/kg of
SBCAPE around the area showers and thunderstorms are forecast
with any activity that develops bringing a threat for localized
flash flooding and gusty winds. Otherwise temps are slightly
cooler on Sun getting into the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms will decrease
in coverage and intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and
PoPS drastically decrease as a result. Coastal regions and areas
offshore could see showers and possibly some rumbles of thunder
tonight from the coastal trough just offshore. Lows will be in
the mid 70s inland, upper 70s for beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Typical summertime pattern expected through
mid week, transitioning to a wetter pattern late week and next
weekend. Temps will remain near climo, slightly cooler late week.
Heat index values 100-105 deg will be possible each afternoon
through mid week.

A cold front will dissipate west of the area Monday, while weak
upper low offshore meanders off the SE coast. Seabreeze, inland
troughing, and waves rotating through the upper trough to the
WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the
forecast through the period. Expect convective chances to be
near climo through Wednesday, with better chances for more
widespread coverage late week into next weekend. Another front
will approach late week into next weekend, possibly stalling
near the area as weak waves develop along it then likely
interacting with moisture from the remnants of Beryl. Overall
continued to cap pops at chance, but did increase Fri to likely
for much of the area. At this time it looks like the lack of
shear should limit overall svr threat each day. However,
periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible, especially
later in the period with PWATs potentially creeping towards
2.5". While this could help the ongoing drought conditions, it
could also lead to minor flooding concerns. Temps look to be
near climo, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s each day and
overnight lows in the 70s. Temps combined with dewpoints in the
70s, could lead to heat index values peaking at 100-105 degrees
each afternoon through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Mon/...
As of 700 AM Sunday...Low ceilings didn`t materialize this
morning despite ample moisture. leaving us with generally VFR
conditions outside of OAJ which is bouncing between MVFR/IFR
vis this morning. Conditions should improve gradually this
morning with the help of daytime heating. Rinse and repeat
forecast today with another round of showers and thunderstorms
developing in an otherwise VFR regime. Winds remain light
through the day at around 5 kt, although some spotty gusts to 15
kt are possible immediately behind the seabreeze. Tonight
brings another chance for fog development along and west of hwy
17, and low ceilings as we have ample low level moisture.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Sct shower/tstm chances expected through the
next several days, peaking during max heating each afternoon
and evening, which could bring periods of sub-VFR to the
terminals. Best chances for widespread precip look to be late
week. Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible each night,
with increased chances for areas that receive rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 330 AM Sunday... Winds are currently SW`rly persisting at
10-15 kts, and will continue to do so through Sun afternoon.
Seas are currently 2 to 4 ft, becoming 2 to 3 feet as we move
further into this morning. The one caveat to this otherwise
pleasant boating conditions will be the constant threat for
isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
which could lead to locally enhanced winds and seas.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Overall pleasant boating conditions expected
through the next few days. Typical summertime pattern continues
with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc trough
inland. S-SW winds 5-15 kt through Wed with seas 2-3 ft,
occasionally up to 4 ft across the outer waters. Southerly winds
will begin to increase a bit late week 10-20 kt with seas
building to 3-5 ft. SCA conditions possible across the waters
late week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ