645
FXUS62 KMHX 300827
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
427 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical summertime pattern will remain in place today with high
pressure offshore and troughing inland bringing very warm
temperatures and isolated thunderstorm chances. A frontal
system approaches the east coast Tuesday and Wednesday bringing
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure
builds in from the west through the holiday weekend with the
frontal boundary stalling off the Southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 345 AM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Typical summertime temperatures and thunderstorm chances

Upper ridging and sfc high pressure remains centered over the
western Atlantic south of Bermuda with a thermal trough across
the across the piedmont with SW flow continuing to bring a very
warm and humid airmass across the region. Conditions not too
dissimilar to yesterday with moderate instability and SBCAPE
peaking around 2000-2500 J/Kg this afternoon and negligible
bulk shear only around 5-10 kt. Broad subsidence aloft will
limit thunderstorm chances with storm initiation primarily along
the sea and sound breezes and subsequent outflow boundaries
through peak heating. Lack of shear will limit storm
organization but cannot rule out a few storms producing gusty
winds if deeper cores are able to develop. A weak front
approaching from the west will bring tightening pressure
gradients this afternoon bringing gustier SW winds this
afternoon around 20-25 mph. Low level thicknesses change
little over yesterday and expect highs in the low to mid 90s
inland and mid 80s to around 90 along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 4 AM Monday...

Thunderstorms expected to diminish quickly this evening with
loss of sfc heating and increasing inhibition. Gradients remain
pinched with the approaching weak front with SW winds around
5-10 mph persisting overnight preventing fog development. Lows
expected in the mid 70s inland and upper 70s to around 80 along
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2:30 AM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Hot conditions continue with heat indices 100-105F Tuesday afternoon

 - Frontal system approaching the eastern seaboard Tuesday- Wednesday
   increases rain chances mid-week and could bring heavy rain,
   frequent lightning, and gusty winds.

 - High pressure builds in late week, bringing back the typical
   summertime pattern with sea breeze convection

A broad trough will pivot across the eastern US Tuesday, moving
overhead Wednesday and offshore late week. At the surface, a cold
front will slowly cross NC on Tuesday with PoPs increasing from west
to east through the day. Better upper level support won`t arrive
until Wednesday, but enough instability will be present for a few
stronger storms to develop in the late afternoon/evening, especially
for areas west of HWY 17. SPC currently has this area outlined in a
Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather. The gradient between
the Bermuda High and the approaching trough will become tighter on
Tuesday, resulting in gusty winds across the area but especially
along the coast.

The aforementioned cold front will get hung up across ENC on
Wednesday. This boundary, coupled with the arrival of greater upper
level support from the trough, will bring likely to categorical PoPs
across the area. Slow storm motions, long skinny CAPE profiles, and
PWATs in excess of 2" support concern for heavy rainfall and the
potential for flash flooding Wednesday afternoon/evening. WPC has
our entire CWA outlined in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall.
Given a lack of shear, the severe potential is of less concern than
that of flooding rain. However, some stronger gusts within
thunderstorms remain possible.

The surface front will slowly move east on Thursday but mid and
upper troughing will persist across the east coast through Friday.
The proximity of this front and the development of the afternoon
seabreeze will keep slight chance to chance PoPs in the forecast for
most of the area on Thursday. There`s potential for a low to develop
along the stalled boundary once it encounters the warmer Gulf Stream
waters on Thursday, but this feature would progress to the northeast
and away from our coast as high pressure builds in from the west.

A closed low will then move through southern Quebec and into the
northeast US on Friday with a reinforcing cold front sagging south
into the FA. Better upper level support will be displaced to the
north, but ample moisture will still be in place to support a few
showers and thunderstorms. We`ll return to a more typical summertime
pattern to start the weekend with seabreeze convection being the
focal point of precip chances as high pressure moves back in.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 3 AM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Mainly VFR outside of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon

 - SW wind gusts to around 20 kt this afternoon.

Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period outside of
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Light SW winds around 5
kt across rtes early this morning is expected to prevent any
mist/fog development with probs less than 10 percent. Pressure
gradients tighten some this afternoon with the approach of a
weak cold front and expect wind gusts to around 20 kt this
afternoon. Tightened gradients continue tonight with SW winds
around 5-10 kt which will preclude fog development.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 3:50 AM Monday...High confidence in periods of sub-VFR flight
conditions Tuesday evening through Wednesday as a slow moving front
brings chances for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Afternoon
shower and thunderstorm chances will persist through the rest of the
period with PoPs highest near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...

As of 315 am Monday...

Key Messages

 - Winds and seas begin to build late today and tonight with SCA
   conditions expected across portions of the waters tonight

High pressure remains centered across the western Atlantic
bringing SW winds around 10-15 kt across the waters with seas
around 2-3 ft with a pred 9-10 sec period. Pressure gradients
begin to tighten some this afternoon and tonight with the
typical diurnal strengthening of the inland thermal trough as
well as the approach of a weak cold front and SW winds will
increase to around 15-20 kt. Strongest winds will be across the
Pamlico Sound and waters east of Oregon inlet where frequent
gusts around 25 kt are expected and will be begin a SCA this
evening. Could see occasional gusts to 25 kt across the rest of
the waters but are not expected to be frequent enough to warrant
a SCA at this time. Seas build to 3-5 ft tonight in response to
the stronger winds.

LONG TERM /Tuesday though Friday/...
As of 4 AM Monday...Marine conditions will be deteriorating at the
start of the period due to an approaching front. On Tuesday,
southwest winds will increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt
in the late afternoon/early evening. Seas will respond by building
to 5-6 ft during this time. By Wednesday morning, the gradient will
become more relaxed. Southwest winds will drop back to around 15 kt
with gusts to 20 kt with seas falling to 3-4 ft by the afternoon.
Given these conditions, SCAs will be in effect for all waters by 15z
Tuesday. Once conditions fall below SCA criteria Wednesday morning,
winds will generally be southwesterly at 10-15 kt on Thursday and
variable at 10-15 kt on Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ131-136-137-154-156-158-230.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ135-150-152-231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...SK/OJC
MARINE...SK/OJC