835
FXUS62 KMHX 071858
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
258 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall to the west tonight which will result
in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through early
this evening. The front will eventually dissipate across the
Piedmont on Monday. More diurnally driven shower and
thunderstorm activity is then forecast from early in the week
through about midweek before the next front approaches and
interacts with moisture from the remnants of Beryl bringing
increased precipitation chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 255 PM Sunday...Key messages for tonight and Monday:
1) Normal temps and summer humidity Monday with scattered
mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

2) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon through early this evening. The main threat will be
locally heavy rains though an isolated damaging wind gust can`t
be ruled out.

The atmosphere is primed today for continued development of
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as a decaying
frontal boundary sags south into NC. Ahead of this front, a
tropical like airmass prevails with PW values >2". MUCAPES are
around 2500 J/kg which is supporting some vigorous updrafts.
The only missing ingredient will be shear which is virtually non
existent. This means that most of todays convection will be
very pulsy with storms developing and decaying rather quickly.
However, cell mergers will lead to more sustained and persistent
multi-cell clusters which will increase the flood threat. Cold
pools may also be strong enough for an isolated microburst or
two as water loaded downdrafts occur in the strongest and most
persistent convection.

The storms initiated on local sea breeze/sound breeze/river
breezes and differential heating boundaries. The greatest
coverage of storms should be along the inland moving sea breeze
and areas north of the Pamlico River. Will continue the likely
PoPs through 00Z. The steering flow is very weak thus storms
are expected to be slow and erratic moving. Stronger storms will
occur in cell mergers and interacting outflows where very rains
are likely to occur leading to a localized flash flood threat.
The CAMs are indicating the potential for localized rainfall
amounts of 3-5" in the most persistent downpours.

The showers and storms will weaken by 00Z with the loss of
heating and should end most locations by 3 or 4Z. The exception
will be along the immediate coast late as the land cools and the
warm shelf waters become a source of lift leading to widely
scattered showers possibly impacting the immediate coast.

Temps tonight are forecast to be sultry in the low to mid 70s
and light southerly coastal breezes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 255 PM Sunday...The pattern for much of the upcoming week
will feature typical summer heat and humidity along with
primarily diurnally driven showers and storms. Monday the
coverage of these showers and storms should be less than what
occurred over the weekend and should form mainly in vicinity of
the sea breeze boundaries in the afternoon. Storms should remain
sub severe with MUCAPE values 1500-2000 J/kg and very weak
shear. Some locally heavy rains will be possible as storm
movements should remain slow. Highs again will be in the upper
80s and lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Typical summertime pattern expected through
mid week, transitioning to a wetter pattern late week and next
weekend. Temps will remain near climo, slightly cooler late week.
Heat index values 100-105 deg will be possible each afternoon
through mid week.

A cold front will dissipate west of the area Monday, while weak
upper low offshore meanders off the SE coast. Seabreeze, inland
troughing, and waves rotating through the upper trough to the
WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the
forecast through the period. Expect convective chances to be
near climo through Wednesday, with better chances for more
widespread coverage late week into next weekend. Another front
will approach late week into next weekend, possibly stalling
near the area as weak waves develop along it then likely
interacting with moisture from the remnants of Beryl. Overall
continued to cap pops at chance, but did increase Fri to likely
for much of the area. At this time it looks like the lack of
shear should limit overall svr threat each day. However,
periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible, especially
later in the period with PWATs potentially creeping towards
2.5". While this could help the ongoing drought conditions, it
could also lead to minor flooding concerns. Temps look to be
near climo, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s each day and
overnight lows in the 70s. Temps combined with dewpoints in the
70s, could lead to heat index values peaking at 100-105 degrees
each afternoon through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Mon/...
As of 255 PM Sunday...The consensus of guidance is for mainly
VFR conditions with light southerly winds through Mon outside of
scattered afternoon to early evening showers and thunderstorms.
Some MVFR ceilings could briefly form over the northern coastal
plain early Mon morning thus have forecast this at PGV 11-14Z.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Sct shower/tstm chances expected through the
next several days, peaking during max heating each afternoon
and evening, which could bring periods of sub-VFR to the
terminals. Best chances for widespread precip look to be late
week. Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible each night,
with increased chances for areas that receive rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 255 PM Sunday...Good boating conditions outside of
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through Mon.
Winds are currently SW at 10-15 kts, and will persist through
Mon. Seas will remain 2-3 ft. Thunderstorms will have locally
higher winds and seas.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 240 AM Sun...Overall pleasant boating conditions expected
through the next few days. Typical summertime pattern continues
with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc trough
inland. S-SW winds 5-15 kt through Wed with seas 2-3 ft,
occasionally up to 4 ft across the outer waters. Southerly winds
will begin to increase a bit late week 10-20 kt with seas
building to 3-5 ft. SCA conditions possible across the waters
late week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD