829
FNUS76 KMFR 042025
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Shelly Fire...USFS
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
125 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 PDT on July 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY......

.DISCUSSION...Hot and dry conditions will persist over the fire through
the weekend as a strong ridge of high pressure settles in. The hottest
day will be Saturday. The lower atmosphere will be very dry and unstable.
As the ridge moves overhead then eastward Saturday and Sunday, the winds
will increase a bit over the area helping fire weather conditions to worsen.
Low pressure approaches from the northern California coast Monday.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent). Areas of smoke.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........12 percent.
Eye level winds.....East winds 1-3 mph becoming north late.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 3-6 mph becoming north late.
Mixing height.......7700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 7 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent). Areas of smoke.
Min temperature.....Around 68.
Max humidity........20-30 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds around 1-3 mph in the evening
                    becoming east 1-2 mph overnight.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 3-6 mph in the evening
                    becoming east 2-4 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 5 mph becoming east.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Areas of smoke early in
                    the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming northwest 3-5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 6-10 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6800 ft AGL increasing to 11000 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 mph becoming northwest 10 mph in
                    the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.

$$

Forecaster...STAVISH
Requested by...Frank Henderson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2417394.0/MFR
.DELDT 07/04/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL frank.henderson@usda.gov