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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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379 FXUS66 KMFR 101554 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 854 AM PDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .DISCUSSION...The forecast is on track for today. Smoke from fires in Douglas and Lane counties continues to affect inland areas. The heaviest smoke this morning will be in central and eastern Douglas county as northeast winds guide the plume near the Umpqua Valley. Winds across the area will turn westerly will increase into the afternoon, hopefully helping to clear out areas of accumulated smoke. Please see the previous discussion for more details on the short- and long-term forecast. -TAD && .AVIATION (12Z TAFs)... A marine layer will cause MVFR conditions along the coast (KOTH), but inland TAF sites are expected to remain mostly in VFR; however, smoke from wildfires across the region could cause some minor visibility restrictions this afternoon. Otherwise, typical diurnal breezes expected with mainly clear skies inland. Guerrero && .MARINE...Updated 230 AM Saturday, August 10, 2024...Northerly winds, especially south of Cape Blanco, will create advisory strength conditions later today as seas become steep. These steep seas and northerly winds are expected to last through Sunday evening resulting in conditions hazardous to smaller crafts. Wind speeds will peak Sunday afternoon. The probability for wind gusts of 34 knots or greater south of Cape Blanco is roughly 40-60% where we have the current Small Craft Advisory. Thereafter, winds and seas will both ease through the middle of next week. -Guerrero && .FIRE WEATHER...Issued 200 AM Saturday August 10, 2024...The forecast period will trend cooler today through next week with increasing onshore flow. The increased onshore flow will result in good overnight recoveries for the coast, coastal valleys, Coquille and Umpqua Basin, including the complex of fires in central and eastern Douglas County. Weak upper troughing is expected today with cooler afternoon temperatures. There`s good agreement instability is marginal at best, with little or no trigger and mid level moisture is lacking, therefore the threat for thunderstorms are next to zero. The most likely scenario will be cumulus build ups in the afternoon over the Cascades and higher terrain east of the Cascades and northern Cal. The potential for isolated thunderstorms will be higher Sunday as the upper trough deepens, with increased mid level moisture and stronger trigger ahead of the approaching upper low. Even then they will be isolated. There`s good agreement the best chance for isolated storms will be centered over northern Fire Zones 624, 625 and portions of Fire zones 284 Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. General upper troughing to remain over the area through next week. Instability is marginal Monday afternoon east of the Cascades and portions of northern Cal and some some evidence supporting a slight chance of storms Monday, Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evening, but trigger is lacking and this confidence is low we`ll get any storms. For now we`ll keep a low end chance (10%) of storms for those days. Also higher afternoon relative humidities are expected with fairly good overnight recoveries, even for the eastside and northern California. We`ll still have to deal with gusty breezes in the afternoon and early evening hours, but with higher humidities in the afternoons, were not expecting critical conditions. -Petrucelli && PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 315 AM PDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ DISCUSSION...The latest satellite image shows marine stratus along the coast and inland into the coastal river valleys and Coquille Basin. The inland push of the marine stratus has been slow but steady and could move into portions of the Umpqua Basin towards daybreak. Elsewhere skies are clear. Dry weather will continue today with the marine stratus away from the coast gradually burning off during the morning. Meanwhile the marine stratus is expected to persist at the coast and just offshore through the day. Also the exception to the dry weather will be patchy drizzle along the south coast, including Brookings this morning. Weak upper troughing remains over the area through the weekend. The marine stratus will remain deep and the models show an extensive area of QPF over the waters and along the coast. Typically when the models show an extensive area of QPF in these areas, it usually results in patchy to areas of drizzle. Thus, the forecast for Saturday morning will reflect this. Therefore patchy drizzle at the coast is expected this morning and again later tonight into Sunday morning. Weak instability exist over the northern Cascades this afternoon, but mid level moisture and trigger is lacking, therefore were not expecting thunderstorms. However, we`ll see cumulus build ups in the afternoon. The upper trough axis will move into southwest Oregon Sunday afternoon. This will provide a slightly stronger trigger along with increasing mid level moisture and instability in portions of northern Cal and east of the Cascades. The combination of the above may be sufficient for at least isolated thunderstorms in northern Klamath, Lake, and portions of Siskiyou County late in the afternoon and early evening. After Sunday, not much change in the pattern is expected through next week. The general consensus among the operational models, ensemble members and clusters all point to weak troughing over the area. This will result in cooler afternoon temperatures that will be near normal for this time of the year for the interior. It`s also expected to remain dry. Next weekend, the clusters suggest the upper trough will deepen some with the center of the upper trough over the PAC NW. The operational models are in good agreement showing a rather strong upper low for this time of the year centered over the eastern pacific with a southwest flow. This would also suggest cooler temperatures (near or slightly below normal) with continued dry weather. -Petrucelli && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. && $$