Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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919 FXUS66 KMFR 011734 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1034 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...Updated AVIATION discussion... .DISCUSSION...The forecast is on track for today. An upper trough that kept temperatures seasonal over the weekend is heading eastward, with a warming trend to follow through the week. What is worth noting is that model temperatures are trending up towards the end of the week. Medford`s current record high temperature is 115 degrees, and there`s a not-impossible 15% chance of tying or breaking that record this Saturday. -TAD && .AVIATION...01/18Z TAFS...Marine stratus has mostly cleared out, leaving VFR conditions across northern California and southern Oregon. MVFR or IFR ceilings are expected to return the coast later this afternoon. Gusty afternoon winds are will develop as well, with those winds calming overnight. -TAD && .MARINE...Updated 830 AM Monday, July 1, 2024...A very strong thermal trough is expected to develop today and linger towards the end of the week. The Gale Warnings are in place for this event south of Cape Blanco, with steep to very steep seas expected elsewhere. The peak should be Tuesday, although very little drop off in intensity is expected Wednesday. As for the wind speeds expected during the peak of the thermal trough, the gale force gusts of 35 to 45 kt are still expected south of Cape Blanco, but there is a 20-40% chance that gusts reach or exceed 50 kt Tuesday or Wednesday evening. With the chance for gale force gusts remaining below 50% between Cape Blanco and Cape Arago, a Hazardous Seas Warning is in place, but that is not to say an isolated gust of gale force strength is not possible. -Miles && FIRE WEATHER (Updated 300 AM July 1st)... .Elevated to critical fire weather possible Tuesday through the weekend... A very strong combination of warming and drying will begin tonight as high pressure starts to build in over the Pacific towards the western CONUS. This will bring moderate to locally poor humidity recoveries to ridges overnight for some westside areas. The poorest recoveries and hottest temperatures are expected from Wednesday morning into the weekend. Western Siskiyou County in particular could experience critical fire weather conditions starting as early as Tuesday afternoon, but much of the forecast area will experience elevated to critical fire weather concerns through the weekend. There is concern for both critically poor night-time ridge top humidity recoveries (higher terrain of Curry and western Josephine counties), and also gusty afternoon winds accompanying a very dry airmass. The limiting factor is likely to be wind speeds overnight, while the hot and dry aspect looks like a "slam dunk" to occur both day and night. We held off tonight on watches/warnings in hopes to gather further insight into where and when we might see specific fire weather hazards. It may end up being a combination of diurnally driven impacts and overnight impacts from poor recoveries and breezy winds. That said, look for some clarity later today after we can talk to our partners about the best approach through this notable heat wave. -Guerrero && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 436 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 2024/ DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)... Overview: Impacts from both heat and fire weather remain at the forefront of the forecast for at least the next week, but early indications suggest we could be in for a rather dry and hot first half of July. By middle of the week, the heat will be ramping up across the forecast area, and there is a high likelihood for some sort of heat risk. In fact, there is the potential for some records to be broken, but not the kind of records some people hope for this time of year. Unfortunately, with this heat comes low RH values that could be coupled with breezy winds, so there is at least some risk for elevated to critical fire weather conditions nearly every day this week. Further Details: With the passing trough to our east that brought a dozen or so lightning strikes (cloud to ground), a dome of high pressure to the west will start to slide east today over the Pacific Ocean. Models are progged to bring the center of this H5 high pressure closer and closer to the western CONUS each day. This will start ramping up our temperatures each day and our fire weather chances through this week. Please see the fire weather discussion below for more information on those specific fire weather hazards. By Thursday, the aforementioned area of high pressure will be off the coast (37N and 127W) of California, yet we will see temperatures soaring to about 100 degrees for many locations starting Fourth of July. The high meanders off the coast for several days until it finally comes on shore Friday night. This is going to result in several days with triple digits in the forecast. Saturday is likely the warmest day by areal coverage and overall high temperatures. The probabilities for 100 degrees or more have gone up (again) for many westside locations. Areas in the valleys on the westside have about a 80-90% chance for 100 degrees or more Thursday through Sunday. In fact, July 5th and 6th, the probability for 110 or greater is around 30-50% for both the Rogue Valley and Shasta Valley and other areas of western Siskiyou county. In other words, there is a high probability for some sort of heat related hazard this week, and this is especially concerning for those more susceptible to heat. Also of note is the duration of this heat wave. The Rogue Valley could go about 9 days or more with 95+ degrees starting Wednesday, but 8 of those days could possibly be 100+ degrees. Overnight low temperatures might be in the mid 60s for some areas on the westside Fri-Sun, which would not allow for much overnight relief from the heat. This is all adding up to a very notable heat wave. The record for 100+ degree days in a row is 10 for Medford, and there are indication we could go about 8 days in Medford starting the Fourth of July. Maybe longer? Model data gets sparse and iffy that far out, but it is something certainly worth mentioning at this point because we could break the record for total 100 degree days in July. Medford`s record for total number of 100 degree days (not necessarily in a row) in July is 13 days set back in 2014. This might not be the record some folks were hoping for this summer. Potential Records: -------- July 4th -------- Medford: 103 in 2015 (Forecast: 102) Roseburg: 98 in 2023 (Forecast: 95) Brookings: 96 in 1931 (Forecast: 80) Klamath Falls: 98 in 1981 (Forecast: 94) Mount Shasta: 97 in 2007 (Forecast: 99) -------- July 5th -------- Medford: 102 in 1926 (Forecast: 106) Roseburg: 98 in 2023 (Forecast: 101) Brookings: 84 in 1993 (Forecast: 81) Klamath Falls: 98 in 2007 (Forecast: 97) Mount Shasta: 100 in 2007 (Forecast: 102) -------- July 6th -------- Medford: 104 in 1922 (Forecast: 107) Roseburg: 102 in 1960 (Forecast: 103) Brookings: 84 in 1998 (Forecast: 77) Klamath Falls: 96 in 2021 (Forecast: 99) Mount Shasta: 99 in 2007 (Forecast: 103) -------- July 7th -------- Medford: 102 in 2014 (Forecast: 105) Roseburg: 100 in 2010 (Forecast: 99) Brookings: 94 in 1937 (Forecast: 72) Klamath Falls: 97 in 2014 (Forecast: 97) Mount Shasta: 101 in 2014 (Forecast: 101) Unfortunately, this potential record heat wave with above normal temperatures will likely continue through mid July. The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a moderate/high chance for both above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation through mid month. This also doesn`t bode well for our fire weather conditions as a prolong drying period appears slated for much of the area through at least mid July. -Guerrero && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Saturday evening for ORZ023-024-026-029>031. CA...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Saturday evening for CAZ080>082-084-085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning from noon today to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-370. Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ370. && $$