Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
504 FXUS62 KMFL 012345 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 745 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The remnants of a shortwave that moved through south Florida late last week have elongated and finally moved south of the region. This will remove the remaining deep layer contributions to ascent and focus convection along the convergent ESErly flow regime. Tonight will feature less coverage of storms offshore with isolated to scattered activity moving inland off the Atlantic coast by the morning tomorrow. Tomorrow afternoon, seabreeze convection will develop across the interior and move west towards the Gulf coast. Convection and cloud debris will keep highs tomorrow in the lower 90s with heat indices in the low 100s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A rather stout mid level ridge will move into the Southeastern portion of the country and remain parked in place through the middle and latter portion of the week. At the surface, high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will extend back into South Florida as well as the eastern Gulf of Mexico during this time frame. This will allow for a typical summertime pattern to remain in place across the region. The development of shower and thunderstorm activity will be sea breeze driven during this time frame and the east coast sea breeze will be dominate due to the general east to southeasterly wind flow in place. This will result in convection starting over the local waters as well as the east coast each morning before shifting towards the interior and west coast in the afternoon and early evening hours. With a lack of mid to upper level support, the chances for strong thunderstorm development will remain very limited during this time frame. However, an isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out mainly over the interior sections each afternoon containing gusty winds and heavy downpours. As the ridge builds and moves closer to the region as the week progresses, temperatures will gradually moderate heading towards the end of the week. High temperatures for the middle of the week will generally range from around 90 along the east coast to the lower 90s across Southwest Florida. By the end of the week, high temperatures will range from the lower 90s across the east coast metro areas to the mid 90s across interior Southwest Florida. The mid level ridge will gradually push into the western Atlantic heading into the upcoming weekend as a mid level trough amplifies as it dives into the Northern and Central Plains. While the ridge will still remain in control of the weather pattern across South Florida, uncertainty starts to rise as the lower level wind flow begins to become more south to southeasterly. The latest guidance is hinting at some deeper layer moisture pushing to the region as the weekend progresses. With guidance remaining in disagreement with timing of this moisture push combined with this being towards the end of the forecast period, the uncertainty remains high for this part of the forecast. High temperatures over the weekend will generally remain around 90 along the east coast to the lower to mid 90s over Southwest Florida. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 739 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 East-southeast flow at 10 knots or less and generally VFR conditions through the 00Z TAF period. Showers will be possible along the east coast Tuesday morning, and may result in brief periods of MVFR conditions. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be primarily focused over interior and Gulf Coast areas during the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Light to moderate ESE flow and low seas will prevail over the coming week. Scattered storms over the Gulf Stream are expected each morning, drifting into the Gulf each evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 91 80 90 / 30 60 30 50 West Kendall 77 91 79 91 / 30 60 30 50 Opa-Locka 79 91 80 92 / 30 60 30 50 Homestead 79 90 80 90 / 40 50 30 50 Fort Lauderdale 79 89 81 89 / 30 50 30 50 N Ft Lauderdale 80 90 81 90 / 30 60 20 50 Pembroke Pines 79 92 80 93 / 30 60 30 50 West Palm Beach 79 91 79 90 / 20 60 20 50 Boca Raton 79 91 80 91 / 30 60 20 50 Naples 77 91 79 93 / 40 70 30 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Harrigan LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...Culver