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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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821 FXUS64 KMEG 052320 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 620 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures will continue through Sunday. A wet and cool pattern will kick off early next week as the remnants of Hurricane Beryl make its way across the southeastern United States. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A shortwave trough is currently stretched from Kentucky, through Middle Tennessee and into north Mississippi. This shortwave is generating convection in central Mississippi as it interacts with an outflow boundary. This convection is producing explosive cloud tops (depicted on GOES satellite imagery) and increasing cloud cover across north Mississippi. This extra cloud cover has been able to keep heat indices at or just below 105 degrees. Mid and high level clouds will push east as a reinforcing cold front, that is just northwest of the Missouri Bootheel, will cross the region this afternoon. Once the clouds do clear out, heat indices may climb in the later hours of daytime heating. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for our bottom tier of counties in north Mississippi until 8 PM. These two frontal boundaries will aid in keeping low PoPs in the forecast across north Mississippi until it clears the area by tomorrow morning. Residing behind the front, is a brief period of cooler conditions with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s beginning on Saturday. Zonal flow will keep conditions dry briefly. Sunday brings the return of rain chances across north Mississippi as the current forecast of Hurricane Beryl has it making landfall near Brownsville Texas. Showers and thunderstorms will ride on a plume of tropical moisture through central Mississippi and may clip our southern tier of counties in Mississippi. Soon after making landfall, Hurricane Beryl looks to interact with a trough. The interaction will cause enough lift to push remnants towards the Mid- South potentially as early as Monday night into Tuesday morning. While rain chances look to be above normal, temperatures will remain below normal for this time period. Uncertainty remains high on timing, intensity, and impacts for the Mid-South in association with the Mid-South, but this is something to keep your eye on. DNM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR CIGs will prevail through the period. Otherwise, expect light north winds to veer east by the end of the TAF cycle. ANS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ010-011-015>017- 020>024. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...ANS