Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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730 FXUS64 KMEG 021710 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1210 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1113 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 It`s shaping up to be a very quiet day across the Mid-South. After yesterday`s brief respite from the heat, temperatures will climb into the low/mid 90s this afternoon. Dewpoints remain in the low to mid 60s, but are likely to increase a few degrees through this afternoon as southerly flow resumes. These modest dewpoints will keep heat indices at bay, generally remaining in the 90s. A few areas south of Tupelo could briefly approach 105F but no headlines are warranted for today. The Excessive Heat Watch for tomorrow remains on track as heat indices are forecast to reach or exceed 110F across much of the watch area. Those locations not included may be included within a Heat Advisory. MJ && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 After a beautiful July day yesterday, the heat returns today with highs in the 90s areawide. Though highs soar into the 90s today, the humidity will stay low keeping heat indices below 105 degrees. This will sadly change Wednesday and Thursday as humidity returns to the region resulting in a likely need for heat products both days. Rain chances return to the forecast beginning Wednesday afternoon and through early next week as several fronts push across the Mid- South. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Monday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 A beautiful night is on display at this hour as current temperatures are in the mid 60s to lower 70s with mostly light winds at the surface under clear skies areawide. We are currently sitting in the northeast quadrant of a 596 dm ridge that is currently centered over the ArkLaTex region. By daybreak, this ridge will build east, nearly centering over our area by mid-afternoon today. As the ridge builds, so will our temperatures across the Mid-South resulting in a dry heat today with highs in the low to upper 90s, highest temperatures over northeast Mississippi and lowest temperatures over far northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. We are expected to fall just below Heat Advisory criteria (heat index values >=105 F) today as moisture doesn`t quite reach our region. The heat story changes tomorrow, however, as the ridge continues to amplify and southerly winds usher in Gulf moisture, increasing our dewpoints into the mid to upper 70s, and in turn increasing our afternoon heat index values. An Excessive Heat Warning will likely be needed over northeast Arkansas, the Mississippi Delta, and portions of West Tennessee as these areas look to have heat index values >=110 F tomorrow and Thursday. Areas not under an Excessive Heat Warning will likely be under a Heat Advisory as these areas look to have heat index values >=105 F. A week cold front will push across the region Friday morning, as the ridge builds southeast, decreasing our daily highs into the upper 80s to mid 90s through the weekend. Aside from the heat this week, diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm chances begin to increase tomorrow afternoon as a few shortwaves begin dampening the ridge over far northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and portions of Northwestern Tennessee. Shower and thunderstorm chances begin to increase farther Thursday as several shortwaves continue ejecting from the west, dampening the ridge even more ahead of the aforementioned front Friday. A conditional chance for severe weather exists both tomorrow and Thursday in the afternoon to early evening hours over portions of far northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee. As heights begin to fall and convection enters into these areas both days, around 2500 J/kg of surface based CAPE, 20-25 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, and PWATs values upwards of 2-2.25" (nearing the 90th percentile) will be present. Though severe chances remain on the lower end both days, primary threats will be damaging winds, large hail, and localized heavy rainfall. Shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast through Saturday morning ahead of and behind the aforementioned cold front. A brief lull in rainfall looks to exist Saturday afternoon through Sunday as high pressure and quasi-zonal flow looks to move over the region. Showers and thunderstorms look to head back into the forecast to start next workweek. Stay tuned. AEH && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Convection looks to develop tomorrow afternoon with greatest thunder coverage affecting JBR and MKL. Scattered coverage appears more likely for MEM and TUP. DNM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058. MO...None. MS...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for MSZ001-007-008-010>012-020>024. TN...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for TNZ048>050-088-089. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...DNM