Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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823 FXUS64 KMEG 071714 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1214 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 450 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Warmer temperatures, moderate humidity and light winds are forecast across the Midsouth today. Hurricane Beryl is expected to make landfall on the Texas coast just after midnight tonight, then lift through east Texas and the western Ozarks through early Tuesday. Rain chances will increase over the Midsouth on Monday and peak Monday night and Tuesday. Two to three inches of rainfall will be possible over northeast Arkansas by Wednesday, with lesser amounts over the remainder of the Midsouth. There is a Marginal Risk of damaging winds and short-lived tornadoes early Tuesday morning along and west of the I-55 corridor, and along and north of the I-40 corridor on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 450 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Warm and predominately dry conditions will prevail over the Midsouth today, as Tropical Storm Beryl intensifies prior to making landfall on the Texas coast after midnight tonight. Relative to yesterday`s forecast, today`s model guidance and official NHC forecast take Beryl on a slightly faster and more easterly trajectory, with landfall approximately midway up the Texas coast. Thereafter, medium range models are quicker to lift Beryl north, reaching the Arklatex Monday evening. Beryl`s remnant low will entrain with a positively-tilted midlevel trough Monday night, aiding Beryls trajectory through the Ozarks on Tuesday. The main axis of heaviest rainfall will remain west of our forecast area, extending through east Texas, western Arkansas, and south central to east central Missouri. Midsouth event total rainfall forecasts range from 2 to 3 inches north of Jonesboro, while only a tenth to a quarter inch of rainfall is likely over north Mississippi. While some model spread remains, our tightest surface pressure gradient will pass through late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. Cloud cover and rain will limit full mixing, but we could see some uptick in winds in areas of temporary clearing on Tuesday. The official forecast blends 25% NBM 75th-percentile with deterministic NBM for winds and wind gusts on Tuesday. 0-3km SRH to 300 m2/s2 and SBCAPE of 500-750 J/kg will support a Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts and tornadoes. This risk area will reside along and west of I-55 early Tuesday morning, and north of I-40 Tuesday afternoon. Relatively quiet mid-summer weather will prevail late Wednesday through early next weekend. While upper heights build, some weakness in the upper ridge will support scattered primarily daytime thunderstorms. PWB && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. As tropical moisture surges into the area, a few showers are possible at MEM, JBR, and TUP. Guidance has some disagreement in coverage and timing, so PROB30s were introduced. MEM looks to have the most isolated coverage and less likely to impact the terminal, so a VCSH was introduced. As moisture continues to move in cloud decks will lower and gradually fill in. Convection looks to begin just outside of this TAF period. Winds will remain light through the period. DNM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...DNM