107
FXUS64 KMEG 072159
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
459 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 454 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Quick update to account for the band of light showers moving
through north Mississippi. Showers should dissipate over the next
few hours with the loss of daytime heating.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Increasing thunderstorm chances begin tomorrow as the remnants of
Beryl will move through the area on Tuesday. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are in the forecast for Monday and again on
Tuesday, with localized flooding possible especially across
northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Damaging wind gusts
and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially on Tuesday
for locations along and north of Interstate 40.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Beginning to see an increase in our cloud coverage across north
MS with some scattered showers in the mix. Coverage of showers
should wane over the next few hours, but cloudiness will continue
to spread northward tonight and into tomorrow. Have warmed a bit
more today than yesterday with much of the area already into the
upper 80s and a few locations in the low 90s. Temperatures will
remain on the warmer side again tomorrow, especially east of the
MS River where low to mid 90s are expected. Could see a few
locations across N. MS reach around 105 for heat index values, but
there is some question if cloud coverage and convection will spoil
this so no heat headlines at this time. Tomorrow through at least
the first half of Wednesday our forecast will be largely driven
by the eventual path of the remnants of Beryl. Beryl is expected
to make landfall along the Texas Coastline tomorrow and not make
it too far inland before it begins lifting northward along a
deepening trough axis across the Plains. Latest model guidance has
sped things up a bit, with the remnant low pressure likely moving
just to our west into Tuesday. By that point it will likely take
more of a northeasterly track into the Ohio River Valley.

So what does this mean for the Mid-South? Well, even more
moisture will funnel into the area tomorrow, with shower /
thunderstorm chances increasing slowly through the day and into
the evening hours. This moisture will remain through Tuesday, with
the highest PoPs likely Tuesday afternoon. There does appear to
be multiple potential rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms as
the low pressure system moves towards our area. With any post-
tropical systems, we will always need to keep an eye on three
things: heavy rain, winds, and tornado potential. In terms of
strong to severe weather potential, shear values will not begin
to become concerning until overnight Monday into Tuesday. So, for
most of the day on Monday think the main concern will be damaging
winds if a storm or two misbehave. Small tornado threat will
increase overnight if there is any convection as the low draws
closer to the area. Now for Tuesday, Tuesday afternoon looks a bit
more concerning than Monday in my opinion, as the remnant low of
Beryl moves through / just north of the area. We are forecast to
remain fairly destabilized and with the nearby low and 700mb jet
aloft, this could spell some damaging winds as well as a tornado
or two for locations along and north of I-40. This forecast will
remain largely dependent on the eventual track of the low, so
there is still a lot of uncertainty with what the area could see
as a result. When all is said and done, there will likely be a
sharp cutoff between areas that see 2+ inches of rainfall versus
those that see less than half an inch. Generally locations west of
the MS River and north of I-40 will have the greatest chance of
seeing higher rainfall amounts, while those south of I-40
especially across N. MS will likely miss out on the higher
rainfall totals. If there were to be flooding issues, NE Arkansas
into the Missouri Bootheel would be the most likely locations.

Remnants of Beryl will move out of the area late Wednesday into
Thursday, leaving behind a somewhat typical summertime pattern
across the Mid-South. Highs will return to the mid 90s with
afternoon thunderstorm chances increasing into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. As tropical
moisture surges into the area, a few showers are possible at MEM,
JBR, and TUP. Guidance has some disagreement in coverage and
timing, so PROB30s were introduced. MEM looks to have the most
isolated coverage and less likely to impact the terminal, so a
VCSH was introduced. As moisture continues to move in cloud decks
will lower and gradually fill in. Convection looks to begin just
outside of this TAF period. Winds will remain light through the
period.

DNM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...DNM