Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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538 FXUS64 KMEG 061124 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 624 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Following the passage of a weak cold front on Friday, a welcome break from humidity is in store for the Midsouth today. High temperatures will prevail near normal over north Mississippi, and around 3 degrees below normal over the remainder of the Midsouth. Warmer temperatures are forecast for Sunday, followed by increasing humidity and a return of rain chances on Monday. Rain chances will increase by midweek, as the remnants of tropical system Beryl lift through the Midsouth. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Friday) Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 In a break from the past several days, no heat headlines have been issued for any portion of the Midsouth today. Dewpoints will prevail in the upper 60s to lower 70s, following the passage of a weak cold front on Friday. Under weak southwest flow aloft, similar conditions are expected Sunday, but with lower 90s building back north through all the Midsouth. Despite the warmer temps, heat indices should prevail below 105. For Monday, a northern branch longwave trough over the plains will remain nearly stationary, maintaining southwesterly flow aloft over the Midsouth. This will provide steering flow for the remnants of Beryl, which is forecast to make landfall on the Texas coast Monday morning. By Tuesday afternoon, rainfall from Beryl will lift from the Arklamiss into the Midsouth. This rainfall will likely continue through Wednesday, but forecast confidence is limited by model spread with respect to intensity and timing. There is agreement on available moisture however, with most of the guidance depicting PWAT peaking at around 2.5 inches during the midweek - near the 99th percentile for July. Following the exit of Beryl`s remnants, a typical summer pattern will likely settle in. Rain chances will continue, mainly during the daytime, and aided by a weakness in upper level ridging over the MS River Valley. PWB && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 No major aviation impacts as VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be out of the north to northeast, eventually shifting to the east. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...JPR