Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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667 ACUS11 KWNS 031941 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031940 SDZ000-WYZ000-032145- Mesoscale Discussion 1522 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Areas affected...far eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 031940Z - 032145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development will continue into the evening with potential for damaging wind and large hail. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been ongoing across portions of eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon. A recent 18z sounding from UNR shows meager instability with MLCAPE < 250 J/kg and MUCAPE around 500 J/kg. Low-level moisture is also meager, with dew points generally in the mid 40s to 50s. Despite meager moisture, ample deep layer shear around 40-45 kts remains in place across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota. Instability does increase near the Nebraska border south of the surface boundary. In this region, transient elevated supercells have been ongoing. Confidence in a sustained severe threat remains uncertain, given generally poor thermodynamics. This area will be monitored for trends and potential for watch issuance should additional storms intensify. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 43530431 43640498 44190578 44550589 44960575 44990502 44820276 43929961 43329975 43079972 43000097 43030276 43070311 43420366 43530431