996
ACUS11 KWNS 040635
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040635
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-040830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1532
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Areas affected...eastern Kansas into western Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 040635Z - 040830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for strong to severe surface gusts with
thunderstorm activity spreading toward the Missouri/Kansas state
border (near and south of Kansas City) through 3-4 AM CDT, appears
to be waning.  It seems unlikely a severe weather watch will be
needed, but trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...An ongoing cluster of storms developing eastward along
the Interstate 70 corridor, and east of the Interstate 135 corridor,
of central Kansas appears rooted within ascent associated with
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection.  This is generally forecast
to continue spreading eastward ahead of a mid-level short wave
trough progressing toward the lower Missouri Valley through
daybreak.

Earlier stronger convection appeared to develop strong mid-level
rear inflow near/east of Hill City, which eventually contributed to
a number of severe surface gusts across the Hayes/Russell through
Salina vicinities, including up to at least 71 kt at Salina at
0538Z.  This has recently been surging southeastward toward areas
near and northeast of Wichita, and is now out ahead of the stronger
convection now approaching the Missouri/Kansas state border (near
and south of the Greater Kansas City area) through 08-08Z.

Gusts associated with southeastward surging outflow seem likely to
continue to wane during the next hour or two.  At the same time,
potential for renewed strengthening of rear inflow and downward
momentum transfer seem limited, in the presence of more modest
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates across eastern Kansas into
western Missouri.

..Kerr/Kerr.. 07/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   39179685 39449556 39389427 38739268 37009419 36959609
            36999771 37839742 38589667 39179685