Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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444 ACUS11 KWNS 302046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302045 AZZ000-302245- Mesoscale Discussion 1495 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas affected...east-central and southeastern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302045Z - 302245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity with potential for strong to severe wind to continue through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is increasing across portions of southern and central Arizona this afternoon. Daytime heating has yielded MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. This, in addition to steep low to mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level flow, will result in a mix of cells and clusters with potential for strong to severe downburst winds and instances of small hail. This threat will likely remain localized and diminish after loss of daytime heating, precluding the need for a watch. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 31881252 32961254 33931215 34281138 33901006 33390956 32870917 31380916 31321101 31881252