Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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484 ACUS11 KWNS 022214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022213 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-022345- Mesoscale Discussion 1513 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0513 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Iowa into extreme northeastern Missouri...extreme western Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 497... Valid 022213Z - 022345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 497 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 497. Severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes are possible with an MCS over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A mature QLCS is moving eastward across eastern Iowa into far northern MO amid strong deep-layer shear and buoyancy (i.e. 50-60 kts of effective bulk shear and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). On the MCS leading line, multiple mesovortices have developed, showing up to 40 kt rotational velocities, suggesting that low-level circulations are strong enough to support damaging gusts and potential tornadogenesis. The DVN VAD profiler shows an appreciably large and curved hodograph, with over 300 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH, which would certainly support additional tornado potential when also considering ample available buoyancy. At the moment, southeastern Iowa, which is the near the apex of the bowing QLCS, has the best short-term tornado potential. ..Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 40369321 41219225 41649193 42259151 42449102 42439032 42178992 41758982 41338994 40749043 40439095 40239200 40169278 40369321