471
FXUS64 KMAF 101657
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1157 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge covering the southwest
and central CONUS, extending from the eastern Pacific to the
ArklaTex and into the Gulf of Mexico.  The old inverted trough is
now over Baja, bifurcating the ridge somewhat, but this should have
negligible effect on weather here, as it will continue decaying and
moving west.

The ridge will remain in place today, portending a fairly persistent
forecast.  As yesterday`s front permeates the higher terrain,
temperatures down south will cool a little, while temperatures in
the north recover a little.  This looks to be a wash, with
temperatures everywhere within a degree or so where they were
yesterday.  Chances for rain look slim-to-none, but CAMs are
suggesting convection over north central Texas may still send a
boundary or two into the Western Low Rolling Plains this afternoon,
kicking off isolated activity there and in the eastern Permian Basin.

Tonight, the LLJ redevelops and increases to 35+kts, retarding
radiational cooling and keeping overnight lows unseasonably warm by
6-8 F above normal.

Sunday, the ridge intensifies a bit, increasing thicknesses and
yielding highs 2-3 F warmer than today`s.  Despite the warm-up, Heat
Advisory criteria will not be met. No chance of rain anywhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

The new week appears fairly bleak for most locations outside of the
western higher terrain and immediately adjacent plains. The upper-
high that has been centered overhead, dominating our weather pattern
for an untold length of time continues. This keeps the overall
forecast hot and mainly dry for the bulk of our region. In general,
afternoon temperatures climb into the upper 90s to low 100s each day
and fall into the 70s each morning. Plentiful sunshine and mainly
dry conditions can be expected for the majority. There is one
exception to this mundane forecast. Towards the middle of the week,
the upper-high weakens and moves eastward into the Deep South. This
allows moist southwesterly mid-level flow and weak disturbances to
influence far western portions of our area. This should support at
least isolated showers and thunderstorms for the westernmost
portions of the area. These chances do appear to decrease again by
the end of the week as the upper-high becomes centered near the Four
Corners once again. I wish I had better news to share, but this
remains a dream for some unknown time in the future.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

VFR with breezy conditions subsiding after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               97  76 101  75 /  20  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 97  71 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   98  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            98  73 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           89  69  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    96  71  98  71 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    90  63  93  65 /  10   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     96  75  98  75 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   96  75  98  75 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     99  76 102  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...29