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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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065 FXUS64 KMAF 102242 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 542 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Mid and upper level ridging is still in full control of our overall weather. We are monitoring an old boundary across the northeast Permian Basin leftover from PH convection. This could be a focus for isolated storms this afternoon and evening as indicated by some of the CAMs. Otherwise it looks to remain dry with temperatures staying near to above normal overnight as winds increase. Temperatures warm back into the 90s to near 100 areawide Sunday with an isolated storm or two possible in the Davis Mountains. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Hotter conditions expected next week even as NBM has trended lower with highs compared to previous runs. As the upper high reorients farther west over the Four Corners, large scale subsidence minimizing cloud and rain chances allows for ample diurnal heating. LLJ will keep overnight temperatures warmer than average as well, as mixing of the boundary layer inhibits radiational cooling near the surface. During the middle portion of next week, LREF TLE-NH clustering shows that the upper high may briefly redevelop farther east over the ArkLaTex into Deep South. This allows moist southwesterly midlevel flow and disturbances aloft to impact far western portions of the area, with diurnally and orographically driven showers and storms possible over the Davis into Guadalupe Mountains resulting from both lift from disturbances aloft and heating of elevated terrain. However, PoPs are not high even as they have slightly increased from previous NBM runs, with PoPs decreasing again by the beginning of next weekend as clustering indicates upper high again becomes centered near the Four Corners, with ridge axis extending from W TX into Northern Great Plains. Each day next week, highs 5 to 10 degrees warmer than average are forecast: in the triple digits along the Pecos River, over the Upper Trans Pecos, and over the eastern Permian Basin, with triple digits near the Rio Grande with 110+ along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend, 90s elsewhere with 80s in the highest elevations. Lows likewise remain 5 to 10 degrees above average, with 70s and above, 60s in northern Lea County and Guadalupe Mountains into Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos forecast each night. Overall, we are not seeing a signal for any major shift to cooler or less dry conditions, even as we have passed the climatological peak of hottest temperatures and driest conditions. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 542 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 VFR prevails through the period with elevated southeast winds into the evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 75 100 75 102 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 72 100 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 75 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 73 99 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 68 91 70 93 / 0 10 0 10 Hobbs 70 98 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 63 92 64 94 / 0 20 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 75 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 75 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 75 100 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...29