413
FXUS64 KMAF 052224
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
524 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 523 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

- Patchy fog possible Sunday morning.

- Low to medium rain chances return Sunday afternoon (10-30% for
  most locations, with highest chances in the Davis Mountains).

- Warmer and drier mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Water vapor imagery depicts low to mid-level high pressure over
northern Mexico, southern New Mexico, and far west Texas. Whereas an
upper-level low is evident over southeast New Mexico and west Texas.
This means that subsidence will be in play today, compressing the
air and allowing for temperatures to climb into the 90s and low 100s
this afternoon (80s in higher terrain). Precipitation chances are
low (<10%) across the region, with the greatest chances of
showers/thunderstorms in the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos. Hi-res guidance has been inconsistent with a developing
MCS over northeastern New Mexico and moving southeast towards the
region (central/northern Lea County and northwest Permian Basin)
late this evening/overnight hours. Have opted not to make any
changes to the PoPs as a result. There is still uncertainty in how
far south the MCS will go and guidance shows that it should
dissipate around midnight.

Patchy fog can be expected Sunday in some areas as temperatures cool
to/near their dewpoint, achieving saturation above saturated soils.
Lower visibilities should only last a few hours as heating quickly
mixes out the fog. An inverted trough approaches the area from the
east Sunday, bringing chances (10-30%) of rain for many locations.
Guidance is now hinting at an MCS moving through southeast New
Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin late Sunday
evening/overnight hours before dissipating around midnight.
Southeasterly winds will advect abundant Gulf moisture into the
region and provide upslope flow along the Davis Mountains (hence why
PoPs are highest there). Muggy conditions continue Sunday as a
result of the aforementioned Gulf moisture, with dewpoints in the
mid 60s to low 70s. Sunday`s highs are expected to be cooler due to
upslope flow and humid conditions, limiting highs in the mid 80s to
low 90s. However, spots along the Rio Grande are forecast to see
readings in the lower triple digits. Precipitation chances taper off
after midnight/early Monday morning and low temperatures remain in
the mid 60s to low 70s for most.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Isolated (20-30%) rain chances and near normal temperatures continue
into Monday before we enter a drying and warming trend. With the
upper ridge centered to our west and an inverted trough over the
eastern Gulf of America we will see more storms develop across the
region Monday. Coverage is expected to remain low, but most
locations have at least a shot at seeing rain. Highest chances (30%)
remain across the higher terrain. We will also see another day of
temperatures close to normal given the extra clouds and moisture in
place.

Ridging strengthens over the region middle to late week leading to
increasing heights. This will keep most of the area dry outside
of the mountains where only a storm or two is expected.
Temperatures will also be on the rise with highs climbing back
above normal. By late week, it appears convection will be nil with
temperatures back to near 100 in most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

VFR will prevail with light east winds. There is a moderate (50%)
probability of FG at KMAF around sunrise so have added a tempo.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  92  71  91 /  10  20  10  20
Carlsbad                 72  93  71  91 /   0  20  10  20
Dryden                   74  93  74  92 /  10  20   0  10
Fort Stockton            72  93  71  92 /   0  20   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           69  86  67  85 /   0  20  10  20
Hobbs                    70  91  69  89 /   0  20  10  10
Marfa                    65  88  64  86 /   0  30   0  30
Midland Intl Airport     73  93  72  91 /   0  20  10  10
Odessa                   72  92  71  91 /   0  20  10  10
Wink                     72  93  71  91 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29