043
FXUS64 KMAF 110309
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1009 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Mid and upper level ridging is still in full control of our
overall weather. We are monitoring an old boundary across the
northeast Permian Basin leftover from PH convection. This could be
a focus for isolated storms this afternoon and evening as
indicated by some of the CAMs. Otherwise it looks to remain dry
with temperatures staying near to above normal overnight as winds
increase. Temperatures warm back into the 90s to near 100 areawide
Sunday with an isolated storm or two possible in the Davis
Mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Hotter conditions expected next week even as NBM has trended
lower with highs compared to previous runs. As the upper high
reorients farther west over the Four Corners, large scale
subsidence minimizing cloud and rain chances allows for ample
diurnal heating. LLJ will keep overnight temperatures warmer than
average as well, as mixing of the boundary layer inhibits
radiational cooling near the surface. During the middle portion of
next week, LREF TLE-NH clustering shows that the upper high may
briefly redevelop farther east over the ArkLaTex into Deep South.
This allows moist southwesterly midlevel flow and disturbances
aloft to impact far western portions of the area, with diurnally
and orographically driven showers and storms possible over the
Davis into Guadalupe Mountains resulting from both lift from
disturbances aloft and heating of elevated terrain. However, PoPs
are not high even as they have slightly increased from previous
NBM runs, with PoPs decreasing again by the beginning of next
weekend as clustering indicates upper high again becomes centered
near the Four Corners, with ridge axis extending from W TX into
Northern Great Plains. Each day next week, highs 5 to 10 degrees
warmer than average are forecast: in the triple digits along the
Pecos River, over the Upper Trans Pecos, and over the eastern
Permian Basin, with triple digits near the Rio Grande with 110+
along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend, 90s elsewhere with 80s in
the highest elevations. Lows likewise remain 5 to 10 degrees above
average, with 70s and above, 60s in northern Lea County and
Guadalupe Mountains into Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos
forecast each night. Overall, we are not seeing a signal for any
major shift to cooler or less dry conditions, even as we have
passed the climatological peak of hottest temperatures and driest
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow.
Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field late morning,
w/bases 5-7 kft AGL.  No convection expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75 101  75 102 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 72 100  73 102 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   75  99  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            73  99  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           68  92  70  93 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                    70  98  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    63  92  64  94 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     75  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   75  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     75 101  75 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...44