118
FXUS64 KMAF 110707
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
207 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

The short term forecast remains quite jejune, as the upper ridge
persists.

WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge still covering the
southwest and central CONUS, extending from the eastern Pacific to
the ArklaTex and into the Gulf of Mexico.  The old inverted trough
remains over Baja, bifurcating the ridge, but this will continue to
have negligible effect on weather here.

The ridge will remain in place today, w/models increasing
thicknesses slightly and increasing highs on average 2-3 degrees
over yesterday`s.  Fortunately, despite the increase, heat advisory
criteria does not look to be met attm.  Chances of convection in
this scenario are slim-to-none.  An isolated cell or two may try to
develop invof the Davis Mountains, but should die out quickly.

Tonight looks like a carbon copy of this morning, as a 35+ kt LLJ
redevelops, retarding radiational cooling and keeping overnight lows
~ 6-8 F above normal.

Monday, the ridge is forecast to shift east to near the ArklaTex.
Despite this thicknesses will remain the same or even increase a
little, making Monday perhaps the warmest day this forecast as highs
top out 7-9 F above climatology.  This will put triple digits in the
river valleys, but not enough again to warrant any heat products.  A
cell or two may try to develop invof the Davis Mountains, but
chances look about as pathetic as they do this afternoon.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

A bit more hope has begun to emerge in the forecast over the next
week. It will mostly remain much of the same as its been, but with
at least a day or two of rain potential for a large portion of the
area. To start the week, the upper-high begins to weaken slightly as
it slides off towards the east into the Lower Mississippi River
Valley. This keeps temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to low 100s
for the majority with little hope of rain. The only exception is an
isolated threat of thunderstorms over the western mountains. This
changes by the middle of the week as model guidance is starting to
show an easterly wave moving across the western Gulf of Mexico and
wrapping around the upper-high across West Texas. This should be the
impetus for lift and moisture, bringing widespread rain chances to a
bulk of the region. While the exact details remain uncertain, at
least some can expect to see beneficial rainfall through the middle
of the week. Temperatures remain about the same despite the passing
disturbance. Things begin to dry out once again as the upper-high
beings to slide back to the west, becoming centered near the Four
Corners. Stay tuned for more details as we get closer.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow.
Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field late morning,
w/bases 5-7 kft AGL.  No convection expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              102  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                101  73 102  73 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                  100  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           100  73 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           93  70  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
Hobbs                   100  71 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    93  64  94  65 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     99  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   99  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    103  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...44