402
FXUS64 KMAF 120713
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
213 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Persistence rules in the short term, with little to write home about.

WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge extending more or less
across the southern CONUS, and centered over Texas.  A 35+kt LLJ is
once again keeping mixing in play, and will result in another night
of unseasonably warm temperatures.

The ridge will shift eastward a bit today, but thicknesses and
temperatures remain about the same, w/highs within a degree or so
where they were yesterday.  As such, no heat products are warranted
attm.  In this setup, an isolated cell or two may try to develop
invof the Davis Mountains this afternoon, but with no support,
should die out quickly.

Tonight looks like a carbon copy of this morning, as a 35+ kt LLJ
redevelops, retarding radiational cooling and keeping overnight lows
~ 6-8 F above normal.

Tuesday, the ridge continues developing east to the ArklaTex,
resulting in decreasing thicknesses locally, which will shave a
degree or two off today`s highs.  Being closer to the western
periphery of the ridge, with an approaching shortwave moving through
Arizona, convective chances look a little better over the higher
terrain west of the Pecos, but not by much.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Ensemble guidance and various deterministic guidance have begun to
converge on a hopeful patten change for the middle of the week. Two
features bring on this change, an easterly wave coming out of the
western Gulf of Mexico and a digging shortwave trough moving into
the central Great Plains. These will act to bifurcate the upper-high
that has been present over the southern Great Plains over the past
week or so. With the upper-high and large-scale subsidence no longer
dominant and instead lift and moisture returning to our neck of the
woods, so do rain chances. The best chance of rain through this
period will be focused across the western higher elevations and
adjacent plains, but at least an isolated threat can be expected
even into the Permian Basin. Unfortunately, beneficial rains are
going to be few and far between and short-lived. The upper-high
restrengthens over the southern Great Plains by the end of the week
and rain chances swiftly end once again. Temperatures are largely
going to remain hot despite this slight pattern change. Mid 90s to
low 100s remain common through the middle of the week and once the
upper-high returns, temperatures only look to slowly increase.
Widespread 100s and hazardous heat may return by next weekend for
portions of the region. An unfortunate return to reality to close
out the forecast period.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field late morning/early
afternoon, w/bases 4.5-10 kft AGL. No convection expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              102  75 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                101  73 100  74 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                  100  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           101  73  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           93  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                   100  70  98  72 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    94  64  92  66 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport     99  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   99  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    103  76 101  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...44