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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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757 FXUS64 KMAF 121704 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1204 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 212 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Persistence rules in the short term, with little to write home about. WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge extending more or less across the southern CONUS, and centered over Texas. A 35+kt LLJ is once again keeping mixing in play, and will result in another night of unseasonably warm temperatures. The ridge will shift eastward a bit today, but thicknesses and temperatures remain about the same, w/highs within a degree or so where they were yesterday. As such, no heat products are warranted attm. In this setup, an isolated cell or two may try to develop invof the Davis Mountains this afternoon, but with no support, should die out quickly. Tonight looks like a carbon copy of this morning, as a 35+ kt LLJ redevelops, retarding radiational cooling and keeping overnight lows ~ 6-8 F above normal. Tuesday, the ridge continues developing east to the ArklaTex, resulting in decreasing thicknesses locally, which will shave a degree or two off today`s highs. Being closer to the western periphery of the ridge, with an approaching shortwave moving through Arizona, convective chances look a little better over the higher terrain west of the Pecos, but not by much. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 212 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Ensemble guidance and various deterministic guidance have begun to converge on a hopeful patten change for the middle of the week. Two features bring on this change, an easterly wave coming out of the western Gulf of Mexico and a digging shortwave trough moving into the central Great Plains. These will act to bifurcate the upper-high that has been present over the southern Great Plains over the past week or so. With the upper-high and large-scale subsidence no longer dominant and instead lift and moisture returning to our neck of the woods, so do rain chances. The best chance of rain through this period will be focused across the western higher elevations and adjacent plains, but at least an isolated threat can be expected even into the Permian Basin. Unfortunately, beneficial rains are going to be few and far between and short-lived. The upper-high restrengthens over the southern Great Plains by the end of the week and rain chances swiftly end once again. Temperatures are largely going to remain hot despite this slight pattern change. Mid 90s to low 100s remain common through the middle of the week and once the upper-high returns, temperatures only look to slowly increase. Widespread 100s and hazardous heat may return by next weekend for portions of the region. An unfortunate return to reality to close out the forecast period. -Chehak && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 VFR VIS and CIGs prevail throughout TAF period with predominately southeast winds. Winds at beginning of period start off gusty at MAF and remain gusty, and become gusty at other terminals by 22Z- 23Z today. Winds remain gusty until 07Z-08Z Tuesday, after which they decrease except for at FST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 102 75 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 101 73 100 74 / 0 0 10 10 Dryden 100 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 101 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 93 70 91 70 / 10 10 10 20 Hobbs 100 70 98 72 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 94 65 93 66 / 10 10 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 99 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 99 75 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 103 76 101 77 / 0 0 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...94