237
FXUS64 KMAF 130542
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1242 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

High and low temperatures as well as PoPs have not changed much
from previous NBM runs. We are still expecting higher rain chances
later Wednesday afternoon and evening into Thursday. More on that
in the long term discussion.

Today, VIS and IR satellite show little in the way of clouds
aside from some high clouds over SE NM plains, the Big Bend, and
the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. These high clouds are streaming
northwest as southeasterly flow continues over the area. While
ridging will redevelop farther to the east over the ArkLaTex into
the Deep South, highs will remain similar to the last few days,
with no heat advisories expected as high temperatures come out ~6
to 10 degrees above average. Triple digit readings along the Pecos
River into the Upper Trans Pecos, over the northeast Permian
Basin, and along the near the Rio Grande with ~110+ readings right
along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend are forecast, with 90s, 80s
in highest elevations elsewhere. Showers and storms are possible
due to elevated heating of terrain over the Davis Mountains, but
without much dynamic forcing aside from that provided by
orographic flows, these showers and storms are not likely to
persist for very long and will dissipate after sunset. As has been
the case for the past few nights, 35+ kt LLJ tonight will result
near surface radiational cooling being inhibited and mixing of the
boundary layer, resulting in lows ~6 to 12 degrees above average
and only falling into the 70s and above, 60s in northern Lea
County and Marfa Plateau into the Lower Trans Pecos.

Tuesday, ridging continues to meander over the ArkLaTex into
Southern Mississippi Valley, with decreasing thicknesses yielding
high temperatures a few degrees cooler than today, ~ 4 to 10
degrees above average, and reduced extent and magnitude of triple
digit readings along the Pecos River and northeast Permian Basin.
Therefore we are also not expecting any heat products for
tomorrow. With an approaching shortwave from AZ skirting the
western periphery of the upper high, convective chances will be
slightly higher tomorrow afternoon and evening over westernmost
regions, but not enough to yield more than an isolated chance of
storms. Tuesday night will repeat the same story of the past few
nights as the LLJ continues to keep overnight lows above average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Conditions stay pretty stagnant over the extended forecast
period. High pressure will remain in position from the northern
Gulf Coast to New Mexico. Highs through the weekend will thus
remain in the upper 90s to low 100s which is typical August
weather for West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. The only
feature to break up the monotony is a weak upper trough that moves
across the area Wednesday and Thursday. The trough will help
increase rain chances mainly for areas west of the Pecos River on
Wednesday, with slight chances spreading east on Thursday to
include the Permian Basin. You have to get your rainfall on one of
those two days because the remainder of the extended is dry as the
trough weakens and high pressure again dominates.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning/early
afternoon, w/bases starting ~ 6-9 kft AGL. No convection expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              101  76 102  76 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                100  74 100  73 /  10  10  20  10
Dryden                   99  75 100  76 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton            98  74 100  75 /  10   0  30  10
Guadalupe Pass           91  70  91  71 /  20  20  30  10
Hobbs                    97  72  99  72 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                    93  67  91  66 /  30  20  50  20
Midland Intl Airport     97  75  99  76 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                   97  75  99  77 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                    101  77 102  78 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...44