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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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831 FXUS64 KMAF 130726 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 226 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge extending across the southern CONUS from the Pacific to the Atlantic, but somewhat bifurcated as a trough over northwest Sonora approaches West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This puts the main ridge extending from about north central Texas to southern Florida and beyond. As the main ridge continues to shift east to the ArklaTex today, thicknesses will decrease locally, shaving a degree or two off of yesterday`s highs, yielding potentially the "coolest" day this forecast as highs top out only 5-7 F above normal. As such, no heat products are warranted. West Texas and Southeast New Mexico will be closer to the periphery of the ridge this afternoon, increasing chances of convection over the higher terrain this afternoon/tonight, w/the assist of the incoming trough. Tonight, a 40+kt LLJ is forecast to redevelop, keeping mixing in place and retarding radiational cooling to keep overnight lows about where they are this morning, if not a skosh warmer. Wednesday, the Sonora trough arrives, providing perhaps the best chance of rain for the area this forecast. Chances remain best over the higher terrain, but isolated activity could make it well into the Permian Basin. Again...isolated. Despite this, all models increase thicknesses/temperatures, which will keep highs the same or a bit warmer than this afternoon`s. That`s probably a good indicator of what little effect this trough will have. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 The best chance of rain through the period is most likely to occur on Wednesday. This is when the upper-high becomes bifurcated with a weakness across the southern Great Plains. During this time, a shortwave trough ejects across the north-central Great Plains and this should aid in the development of thunderstorms across the western mountains and adjacent plains. This activity will continue into the early evening before dissipating overnight. The last gasp of rainfall is expected Thursday afternoon. A stalled surface trough is progged to set up across the Llano Estacado into the Permian Basin and into the Davis Mountains. Another passing disturbance may provide enough large-scale ascent to produce isolated thunderstorms along this surface trough and over the higher elevations. This activity will similarly dissipate after sunset Thursday evening. Beyond this point, rain chances are nill as the upper-high restrengthens and large-scale subsidence reasserts its dominance over our region. Besides the limited then bleak rain chances, temperatures remain hot across the region with mid 90s and low 100s holding through the end of this week. Once the upper-high restrengthens, the heat is only expected to begin a slow increase. Low to mid 100s are likely to become common place for most locations outside of the higher elevations. The worst of this heat may become focused across the eastern Permian basin nearest the low-level thermal ridge. This may need to be monitored for the threat of heat- related hazard products as we get closer to the weekend and beyond. Overnight temperatures offer little relief as mid 70s is all the cooling that can be expected for most. The unrelenting summer as of late continues... -Chehak && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning/early afternoon, w/bases starting ~ 6-9 kft AGL. No convection expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 100 77 102 77 / 0 0 10 10 Carlsbad 100 74 100 74 / 10 20 20 20 Dryden 99 76 100 76 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Stockton 99 74 101 75 / 10 0 30 20 Guadalupe Pass 91 69 91 71 / 20 30 30 20 Hobbs 97 72 99 72 / 0 10 10 20 Marfa 92 67 92 66 / 20 20 50 20 Midland Intl Airport 97 76 99 76 / 0 0 10 10 Odessa 97 76 99 77 / 0 0 10 10 Wink 101 76 102 78 / 0 0 10 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...44