385
FXUS64 KMAF 131722
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1222 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge extending across the
southern CONUS from the Pacific to the Atlantic, but somewhat
bifurcated as a trough over northwest Sonora approaches West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This puts the main ridge extending
from about north central Texas to southern Florida and beyond.

As the main ridge continues to shift east to the ArklaTex today,
thicknesses will decrease locally, shaving a degree or two off of
yesterday`s highs, yielding potentially the "coolest" day this
forecast as highs top out only 5-7 F above normal.  As such, no heat
products are warranted.  West Texas and Southeast New Mexico will be
closer to the periphery of the ridge this afternoon, increasing
chances of convection over the higher terrain this
afternoon/tonight, w/the assist of the incoming trough.

Tonight, a 40+kt LLJ is forecast to redevelop, keeping mixing in
place and retarding radiational cooling to keep overnight lows about
where they are this morning, if not a skosh warmer.

Wednesday, the Sonora trough arrives, providing perhaps the best
chance of rain for the area this forecast. Chances remain best
over the higher terrain, but isolated activity could make it well
into the Permian Basin. Again...isolated. Despite this, all models
increase thicknesses/temperatures, which will keep highs the same
or a bit warmer than this afternoon`s. That`s probably a good
indicator of what little effect this trough will have.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

The best chance of rain through the period is most likely to occur
on Wednesday. This is when the upper-high becomes bifurcated with a
weakness across the southern Great Plains. During this time, a
shortwave trough ejects across the north-central Great Plains and
this should aid in the development of thunderstorms across the
western mountains and adjacent plains. This activity will continue
into the early evening before dissipating overnight. The last gasp
of rainfall is expected Thursday afternoon. A stalled surface trough
is progged to set up across the Llano Estacado into the Permian
Basin and into the Davis Mountains. Another passing disturbance may
provide enough large-scale ascent to produce isolated thunderstorms
along this surface trough and over the higher elevations. This
activity will similarly dissipate after sunset Thursday evening.
Beyond this point, rain chances are nill as the upper-high
restrengthens and large-scale subsidence reasserts its dominance
over our region.

Besides the limited then bleak rain chances, temperatures remain
hot across the region with mid 90s and low 100s holding through
the end of this week. Once the upper-high restrengthens, the heat
is only expected to begin a slow increase. Low to mid 100s are
likely to become common place for most locations outside of the
higher elevations. The worst of this heat may become focused
across the eastern Permian basin nearest the low-level thermal
ridge. This may need to be monitored for the threat of heat-
related hazard products as we get closer to the weekend and
beyond. Overnight temperatures offer little relief as mid 70s is
all the cooling that can be expected for most. The unrelenting
summer as of late continues...

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

VFR conditions with modest and occasionally gusty winds will
continue the next 24 hours. Isolated TS will develop in the
mountains but should remain west of all TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              100  76 101  77 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                100  73 100  74 /  10  20  20  20
Dryden                   99  76 100  76 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton            99  74 100  75 /  10   0  30  20
Guadalupe Pass           91  70  91  71 /  30  30  30  20
Hobbs                    97  72  98  72 /   0  10  10  20
Marfa                    92  67  91  66 /  30  20  60  20
Midland Intl Airport     97  76  99  76 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                   97  76  99  77 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                    101  77 101  78 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...10