154
FXUS64 KMAF 020510
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1210 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

- Excellent chances of rain are expected through Thursday, then
  decreasing into next week, and centered on the Davis Mountains.

- Temperatures will gradually warm to near-normal Saturday, then
  cool slightly Sunday and Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 743 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

The Flash Flood Watch has been allowed to expire across the
region. Showers and a couple of thunderstorms are still prevalent
across the forecast area, thanks to being in a very moist
environment. Intermediate light to moderate rain showers are
expected throughout this evening into early tomorrow morning with
a few prolonged breaks late this evening and overnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

A weak front combined with the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry have
brought a shield of showers with isolated thunderstorms to the
region that will continue through much of the short term forecast.
With that in mind, the current Flash Flood Watch that encompasses
much of the CWA will hold for now and will likely be extended for
certain zones this evening. Many spots will see, through light to
moderate rainfall, another quarter to half inch or more of
additional rain through tonight. A few heavier showers or
thunderstorms may bring heavy rain leading to some spots seeing
closer to an inch or more.

The abundant moisture and the nearby upper level trough hold on in
the area for Wednesday where another day of light to moderate
scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible.
Temperatures will be well moderated by clouds and rain nearly
areawide with the only warm spots along the Rio Grande and in Big
Bend.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

After a cooler and wetter period, an upper level ridge returns,
leading to warmer, and eventually drier conditions for most areas.
Highs on Thursday warm a few degrees over the previous day,
primarily reaching into the 80s, with 70s holding steady over the
mountains. Highs on the 4th of July top out in the 90s over the
Permian Basin and portions of southeast New Mexico, while 80s hang
around elsewhere. By Saturday, 90s become more common across the
region as ridging builds over northwestern Mexico. The ridge drifts
slightly west and northwestward early next week, allowing highs to
hover closer to normal, if not a touch below.

A shortwave trough will bring us our best shot at rainfall Thursday
afternoon. PoPs areawide range anywhere between 50-80%. The highest
rain chances lie near and over the Davis Mountains. Rain chances on
the 4th of July begin to drop off for many. Though, the mountains
and Big Bend region may still see scattered showers and
thunderstorms (40-60%). With any luck, looks like the weather
overall will be quite nice for enjoying some grilling and fireworks!
Through the weekend, moist upslope flow may result in additional
shower/storm activity in the vicinity of the higher elevations.
Otherwise, drier conditions await most early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

MVFR or lower CIGs forecast throughout TAF period, with CIGs down
to IFR and low but nonzero chance of LIFR CIGs where heaviest
and/or most persistent showers/storms and regions of mist or fog
occur. Main threats with storms are heavy rain, gusty winds, and
lightning. Generally expecting CIGs to lower 12Z-17Z, increase
17Z-02Z, and decrease 03Z into end of period. VFR VIS except for
MVFR or lower VIS in showers/storms and fog or mist. Breaks in low
cloud cover beginning 17Z and continuing into end of period.
Easterly winds veering to southeasterly and increasing in speed
14Z-00Z, with gustiest winds up to 20 knots over Stockton Plateau
into Permian Basin and Lea County. Winds decrease 01Z into end of
period, but remain gusty up to 15 knots at terminals on Stockton
Plateau.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               81  69  84  71 /  50  50  70  50
Carlsbad                 76  67  80  68 /  80  70  70  30
Dryden                   82  71  85  72 /  60  50  70  40
Fort Stockton            81  68  83  70 /  70  40  80  40
Guadalupe Pass           71  62  75  65 /  80  70  70  30
Hobbs                    76  66  81  67 /  70  70  60  40
Marfa                    75  64  77  64 /  80  60  90  60
Midland Intl Airport     79  69  83  71 /  60  60  60  50
Odessa                   78  69  82  70 /  70  60  60  40
Wink                     80  69  83  70 /  60  50  60  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...94