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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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595 FXUS64 KMAF 140440 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1140 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 112 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Current radar and satellite shows convection developing mainly in the mountains west of the Pecos River. This activity will continue as long as there is daylight to destabilize the atmosphere, then dissipate after sunset. An upper trough currently over the western states will move east into the South Plains tomorrow dragging drier air and a weak surface trough into West Texas. The GFS and especially the NAM and hi-res models show convection developing along this surface trough from southeastern New Mexico and the western Permian Basin to the Big Bend tomorrow afternoon. Shear is weak so severe storms are not expected and most should be pulse-type. Weak winds aloft create slow storm motion which may allow for very isolated flash flood conditions and should be the only severe weather threat tomorrow. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 112 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 The upper trough brings a weak front into the Texas Panhandle that stalls out north of our area. The weak prefrontal surface trough remains in the western Permian Basin but the supporting upper level trough moves off to the east bringing more stable conditions as high pressure builds in. There may be some isolated storms Thursday but you better get rain on Wednesday because chances after that are very low, except in the mountains in the Big Bend. The remainder of the extended forecast has high pressure dominating with temperatures gradually climbing into the low triple digits. Heat products may be required over the weekend and early next week so keep that in mind if planning anything outdoors. Hennig && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning, afternoon, w/bases starting ~ 4.5-6 kft AGL. Convection is possible all terminals, but chances are too low for a mention attm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 76 102 77 103 / 0 10 10 10 Carlsbad 73 99 73 101 / 20 30 20 10 Dryden 76 101 76 101 / 0 10 0 10 Fort Stockton 75 101 74 101 / 0 30 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 70 91 71 92 / 30 40 20 10 Hobbs 72 99 72 100 / 10 20 20 10 Marfa 67 91 66 92 / 10 60 20 40 Midland Intl Airport 76 99 76 100 / 0 20 10 10 Odessa 77 99 77 100 / 0 20 10 10 Wink 77 102 78 103 / 10 30 20 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...44