595
FXUS64 KMAF 140440
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1140 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Current radar and satellite shows convection developing mainly in
the mountains west of the Pecos River. This activity will continue
as long as there is daylight to destabilize the atmosphere, then
dissipate after sunset. An upper trough currently over the western
states will move east into the South Plains tomorrow dragging
drier air and a weak surface trough into West Texas. The GFS and
especially the NAM and hi-res models show convection developing
along this surface trough from southeastern New Mexico and the
western Permian Basin to the Big Bend tomorrow afternoon. Shear
is weak so severe storms are not expected and most should be
pulse-type. Weak winds aloft create slow storm motion which may
allow for very isolated flash flood conditions and should be the
only severe weather threat tomorrow.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

The upper trough brings a weak front into the Texas Panhandle that
stalls out north of our area. The weak prefrontal surface trough
remains in the western Permian Basin but the supporting upper
level trough moves off to the east bringing more stable
conditions as high pressure builds in. There may be some isolated
storms Thursday but you better get rain on Wednesday because
chances after that are very low, except in the mountains in the
Big Bend. The remainder of the extended forecast has high pressure
dominating with temperatures gradually climbing into the low
triple digits. Heat products may be required over the weekend and
early next week so keep that in mind if planning anything
outdoors.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning, afternoon,
w/bases starting ~ 4.5-6 kft AGL. Convection is possible all
terminals, but chances are too low for a mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76 102  77 103 /   0  10  10  10
Carlsbad                 73  99  73 101 /  20  30  20  10
Dryden                   76 101  76 101 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton            75 101  74 101 /   0  30  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           70  91  71  92 /  30  40  20  10
Hobbs                    72  99  72 100 /  10  20  20  10
Marfa                    67  91  66  92 /  10  60  20  40
Midland Intl Airport     76  99  76 100 /   0  20  10  10
Odessa                   77  99  77 100 /   0  20  10  10
Wink                     77 102  78 103 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...44