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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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444 FXUS64 KMAF 141941 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 241 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 As expected, scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing south of I-10 this afternoon. Satellite shows a cumulus field developing across the remainder of the area indicating additional instability and moisture is present. Hi-res models show that additional storms will form in the next couple of hours, albeit more isolated in nature, that we will have to monitor. Shear is weak so the storms are pulse-type and not lasting long, but the strong summer heating is creating enough instability that a few storms could briefly become strong with small hail and gusty winds present before dissipating. Residual cloud cover will keep lows in the 70s tonight before we see another hot day tomorrow. The upper trough bringing the storms today will be moving off to the east tomorrow leaving only enough instability in the Davis Mountains for storms to form. Highs tomorrow will be similar to today with readings in the upper 90s to low 100s. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The pattern really becomes stagnant in the extended forecast, not unusual for August. High pressure builds across all of New Mexico and Texas and like a boa constrictor only seems to tighten its grip with time. There will be no chance for rain in the extended period and highs slowly edge upward each day with widespread triple digit heat by the weekend. Portions of the area, like the eastern Permian Basin, may see dangerous temperatures nearing heat advisory levels. Hennig && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Scattered TS will develop across the area after 20Z and currently have it mentioned at CNM/HOB/FST, but any of the terminals could see TS 20-02Z. Confidence isn`t high enough to put it in the other TAFs at this time. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 78 102 77 103 / 10 10 0 0 Carlsbad 74 102 74 101 / 20 10 0 0 Dryden 75 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 75 101 74 101 / 10 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 71 92 71 93 / 20 20 10 10 Hobbs 73 99 72 99 / 30 10 10 0 Marfa 66 93 66 93 / 30 50 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 77 99 76 100 / 20 10 0 0 Odessa 78 99 77 100 / 20 10 0 0 Wink 78 103 78 103 / 30 20 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...10