845
FXUS64 KMAF 150446
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1146 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

As expected, scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing
south of I-10 this afternoon. Satellite shows a cumulus field
developing across the remainder of the area indicating additional
instability and moisture is present. Hi-res models show that
additional storms will form in the next couple of hours, albeit
more isolated in nature, that we will have to monitor. Shear is
weak so the storms are pulse-type and not lasting long, but the
strong summer heating is creating enough instability that a few
storms could briefly become strong with small hail and gusty winds
present before dissipating.

Residual cloud cover will keep lows in the 70s tonight before we
see another hot day tomorrow. The upper trough bringing the storms
today will be moving off to the east tomorrow leaving only enough
instability in the Davis Mountains for storms to form. Highs
tomorrow will be similar to today with readings in the upper 90s
to low 100s.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

The pattern really becomes stagnant in the extended forecast, not
unusual for August. High pressure builds across all of New Mexico
and Texas and like a boa constrictor only seems to tighten its
grip with time. There will be no chance for rain in the extended
period and highs slowly edge upward each day with widespread
triple digit heat by the weekend. Portions of the area, like the
eastern Permian Basin, may see dangerous temperatures nearing heat
advisory levels.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevaol next 24 hours in light return flow.
Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning,
w/bases starting ~ 4.5-6 kft AGL. Convection is possible all
terminals, but chances are too low for a mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               78 102  77 103 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 74 102  74 101 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                   75 102  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            75 101  74 101 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           71  92  71  93 /  20  20  10  10
Hobbs                    73  99  72  99 /  20  10  10   0
Marfa                    66  93  66  93 /  10  50  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     77  99  76 100 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                   78  99  77 100 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                     78 103  78 103 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...44