100
FXUS64 KMAF 040617
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
117 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

- Medium to high rain chances (40-70%, up to 90% in the Davis
  Mountains and Big Bend) continue today. Rain chances decrease
  for the 4th of July, becoming more confined to our far eastern
  counties and the Davis Mountains/Big Bend.

- Additional low rain chances Sunday (20-30%, up to 50% in the
  Davis Mountains).

- Temperatures gradually warm closer to/above normal through next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Heavy showers and some thunderstorms have continued across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning. Further development is
expected this afternoon as our tropical airmass lingers on. PWATs
remain well above climatological norms, with MAF`s 12Z sounding
showing 1.83 in of precipitable water (for reference, the all-time
daily maximum for today is 1.90 in). As a result, flash flooding
will continue to be a concern through the rest of today into the
evening, and the Flood Watch issued last night will continue through
06Z tonight.

This pattern will begin to come to an end starting tomorrow as
troughing to the west moves off to the north and east of our area. A
few isolated to widely scattered showers can still be anticipated in
the Davis Mountains, Eastern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans-Pecos,
but chances are overall quite a bit lower than in previous days and
look to drop off pretty quickly after sunset (10-40%, with the
highest chances in/around the Davis Mountains). In other words, many
locations should stay rain-free (albeit muggy) for 4th of July
festivities tomorrow night! Otherwise, more seasonable temperatures
are expected tomorrow, with highs in the upper 80s and low-to-mid
90s expected for most and lows in the upper 60s and low 70s.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

The Long Term period looks a good deal quieter than the Short Term
Period overall. Ridging begins to move into the region from the
west Saturday, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 90s
for most locations. Even though atmospheric moisture will remain
anomalously high, this ridge should keep precipitation chances
near zero pretty much everywhere, with only some slight chances
(10-20%) near/in the Davis Mountains. By Sunday, an inverted
trough off of the east coast of Texas could initiate a few
additional showers and thunderstorms in our area, though chances
for this also remain fairly low (20-30% for most locations, up to
50% in the Davis Mountains). On the flip side, increased cloud
cover and rain chances will help keep temperatures a few degrees
cooler on Sunday versus Saturday.

Additional rain chances appear in the higher terrain of West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico Monday, mainly the product of upslope flow
(20-40%). After that, the aforementioned ridge pretty much squashes
any further chances through the extended, save perhaps in the Davis
Mountains. Atmospheric moisture will also be on the decline through
the extended, while temperatures begin to climb back towards/above
seasonal averages.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

MVFR/IFR CIGs are moving into the area this morning at HOB/MAF.
These conditions should continue through around 15Z before lifting
back to VFR. VFR conditions should remain at other TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  95  72  91 /   0  10  10  20
Carlsbad                 70  97  70  91 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                   72  94  72  91 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Stockton            71  97  70  91 /   0   0   0  30
Guadalupe Pass           69  90  68  85 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                    68  93  69  89 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                    63  91  63  86 /  10  10   0  40
Midland Intl Airport     72  95  72  91 /  10   0  10  20
Odessa                   71  95  71  90 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                     70  97  71  91 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...10