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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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056 FXUS64 KMAF 081123 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 623 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Convection from last evening has finally either died off or moved east early this morning. Outflow winds remain but are diminishing and should not be confused with a cold front that we are expecting later today. Current observations show that the front is in the South Plains and should arrive in the Permian Basin after sunrise. It`s hard to tell at this time if the recent storms will affect potential rainfall behind the front. NBM guidance shows decent PoPs this afternoon as low level overrunning is helped by an upper disturbance moving southeast across the area. Hi-res models don`t show this, but didn`t handle yesterday`s precip well so that may not mean much. Stayed with NBM on PoPs and have undercut temps this afternoon by a couple of degrees due to early frontal passage. Dry air behind the front will help temps drop into the low 70s to upper 60s yielding a nice morning Tuesday. Temperatures increase slightly Tuesday and upslope flow west of the Pecos River will help scattered showers and storms to develop in the mountains. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The long term period features a relatively quiet pattern along with fairly stable high temperatures as an upper ridge meanders from southern California into the Four Corners region by the end of the week. High temperatures generally range in the low to mid 90s for most each afternoon from Wednesday through the end of the week. With northerly upper flow and subsidence found on the southwestern periphery of the ridge, any storm activity will largely be confined to the Davis Mountains and western high terrain throughout the week. Looking ahead into the far extended for early next week, ensembles are hinting that as the upper ridge transitions into the south central Plains, an inverted trough may sneak in on the south side of it. This probably won`t amount to much...but in theory, it could enhance rain chances outside of the mountains. At the very least, it prevents high heat from building and keeps temperatures near normal for mid July. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Current satellite shows a VFR cloud deck near BKN050 developing in southeastern New Mexico and the South Plains moving south. So while VFR conditions should remain, lower CIGs will be around. TS may develop after 18Z but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs. If it develops, CNM/HOB will be the sites most likely affected. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 88 68 93 69 / 20 20 10 10 Carlsbad 88 69 91 70 / 60 40 20 20 Dryden 98 74 96 74 / 10 20 30 10 Fort Stockton 93 71 91 72 / 30 30 40 10 Guadalupe Pass 82 63 84 67 / 40 30 30 30 Hobbs 82 63 89 67 / 50 40 10 20 Marfa 92 63 86 62 / 50 40 70 30 Midland Intl Airport 88 69 92 70 / 20 30 20 10 Odessa 89 69 91 71 / 20 30 20 10 Wink 93 71 92 73 / 40 40 20 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...10