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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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365 FXUS64 KMAF 070818 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 318 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Today we are sandwiched between fronts, with south to southwesterly winds advecting in the hottest temperatures of the forecast. Highs will exceed 100 degrees for many locations and anyone along the Rio Grande and Pecos River valleys will have to be alert for heat stress as temperatures approach Heat Advisory. An upper trough over the Great Plains will send a cold front into the area Monday bringing a quick return of cooler temperatures. Highs will depend on the speed and timing of the cold front, which will in turn depend on the strength and speed of Beryl in the Gulf of Mexico. Northerly flow on the western side of the tropical storm will help pull the cold front south so the faster and stronger the storm is, the faster the front will move through. Believe the front will make it through faster than the NBM guidance suggests since it normally is a bit slow, and adding in the help front the tropics should only speed up the timing. Lift and moisture advection behind the front should increase rain chances and bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to much of West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Modest rainfall amounts of up to a quarter of an inch are expected with some isolated heavier amounts in the stronger storms possible. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Long-wave upper troughing that has been present across the north- central US through the weekend finally starts lifting northeastward come Tuesday into Wednesday. This allows upper ridging to slowly meander towards the Four Corners in the latter half of the week. Following Monday`s front that, a few showers/storms may linger into early Tuesday morning, but ultimately the effect of the front will mostly be felt by fairly pleasant high temperatures (for July at least...) in the low 90s for most on Tuesday. From there, as thickness slowly increases as the upper ridge slides closer, a gradual warming trend has temperatures back to the upper 90s and triple digits for the lowest elevations by the end of the week. Scattered thunderstorms could stretch out into the plains in addition to the mountains. As subsidence slowly builds throughout the week, storm chances get more and more confined to the western high terrain. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions and light southeast winds will continue the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 102 72 85 70 / 10 10 30 30 Carlsbad 104 71 84 69 / 0 0 50 50 Dryden 101 75 100 73 / 0 0 10 20 Fort Stockton 102 75 95 70 / 0 0 30 40 Guadalupe Pass 96 68 79 63 / 0 0 40 40 Hobbs 102 67 79 65 / 10 10 50 50 Marfa 96 65 92 62 / 20 10 50 30 Midland Intl Airport 101 73 85 69 / 10 10 30 40 Odessa 101 73 85 70 / 10 10 30 40 Wink 105 77 91 70 / 0 10 30 50 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...10