Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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209 FXUS64 KMAF 061940 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 240 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 We continue to be influenced by easterly winds which is helping keep temperatures below normal again today. Seeing a few storms already developing in the Davis Mountains and vicinity and this is likely where most of the convection will stay today. We could see a few storms develop in the Permian Basin just due to daytime heating, but they will be isolated at best. Expect another nice night with low slightly below normal in the upper 60s to near 70 with storms dissipating near or just after midnight. Sunday looks mostly quiet weatherwise with isolated storms again across the Davis Mountains. We will need to monitor for convection to the north that could roll into the region late Sunday night into Monday morning. The one big thing that will be different is the comeback of the heat for one day. Mid level thermal ridging will briefly nose into the region sending highs back into the 100s for most locations. Temperatures under 105 are expected across Eddy county through the Pecos River Valley with near 110 along the Rio Grande. Will hold off on a Heat Advisory right now as will don`t quite reach criteria. Luckily this is a one day event with cooler conditions on the way! && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Highs begin the week near to below average and mainly in the 90s, 80s over northern areas of Lea County and Permian Basin as well as higher elevations, and triple digits confined to the Rio Grande. This push of cooler air will be reinforced by both a cold front moving back south and a persistent long wave trough over the central US surrounded on both sides by a bifurcated ridge. Tuesday is still on track to be the coolest day of the long term, with highs only reaching the 80s as far south as southern SE NM plains, central Permian Basin, and southern portion of the Stockton Plateau, with 90s in the other areas aside from triple digits right along the Rio Grande. As a result of cooler temperatures behind the front, lower highs for Monday and Tuesday in recent NBM runs, and expecting NBM to run too warm, went with NBM 25th percentile for highs Monday and 1:1 blend of NBM and NBM 25th percentile for highs Tuesday. As the front stalls and washes out, a warming trend ensues this week as persistent troughing over the central CONUS eases and ridging expands out of the western CONUS, with strongest flow aloft being pushed northward along the US-Canada border. As a result, highs rise back up into the upper 90s to triple digits by Wednesday, and triple digits outside of the Rio Grande will again make an appearance over eastern Permian Basin as well as Reeves County plains and western Permian Basin along the Pecos River by Saturday. Lows Monday night and Tuesday night drop below the 70s for most places other than near the Rio Grande and along the Pecos River. As with highs, low temperatures begin an increasing trend midweek, with lows only falling into the 70s over most of the Permian Basin and Eddy County Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday nights, and lows only falling into the 70s and above over most of the area aside from northern Lea County, Guadalupes, and Marfa Plateau into Trans Pecos Saturday night. Rain chances and totals have continued to decrease from previous runs. Unfortunately, best chance of storms only looks to occur within a small window Monday into Tuesday morning. Grids indicate isolated to scattered storms mainly over SE NM plains behind the front, as remnants of Beryl look to track well to the northeast and away from the area, with associated greater moisture and lift well to the east of our area. By Tuesday afternoon, the front pushing south and washing out over N MX will mark resumption for the rest of the long term of the pattern of daytime showers and storms owing mostly to heating of elevated terrain each afternoon. Widespread severe is not expected with these storms, with the main risk being lightning and gusty, erratic winds. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR will prevail through the period with light southeast winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 74 103 74 91 / 10 10 20 20 Carlsbad 73 103 71 90 / 10 0 0 30 Dryden 73 101 76 96 / 10 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 74 103 75 96 / 10 10 0 20 Guadalupe Pass 70 95 68 84 / 20 0 0 30 Hobbs 71 102 69 87 / 0 0 10 40 Marfa 62 95 64 93 / 20 20 10 50 Midland Intl Airport 74 101 73 91 / 0 10 10 20 Odessa 75 101 74 91 / 0 10 10 20 Wink 75 105 76 96 / 0 0 10 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...29