983
FXUS64 KMAF 030635
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
135 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

It was a hot one Tuesday afternoon as many locations climbed into
the 100s. Areas to the west did get some relief with scattered
showers and thunderstorms providing some rain and slight cooler
temperatures. Unfortunately, this morning offers little relief from
the heat. A 30kt low-level jet maintains gusty winds and mixing
through the night, greatly abating cooling. Most locations are going
to struggle to cool into the middle 70s by sunrise. This afternoon
is expected to remain much the same as Tuesday. Widespread 100s
return for much of the area with 105+ in the river valleys. This
excessive heat necessitates Heat Advisories for a large portion of
the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, and Rio Grande.
Showers and thunderstorms are once again expected near the western
terrain, though rain chances may be a touch higher and extend
farther east. Those that do get rain may see a quick downpour and
slightly cooler outflow if they are lucky. Tonight once again sees a
return of the low-level jet and again temperatures struggle to cool
into the 70s. Things remain stagnant again Thursday afternoon with
hot temperatures in the 100s for most and a shower and thunderstorm
potential along and west of the Pecos. Thankfully, we take off some
of the heat as we move into the end of the week.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Much cooler and possibly wetter conditions are in the offing to
finish out this week. Models are now in good agreement that the
upper ridge will break down and shift west as a significant trough
sinks into the Plains late week. By Friday, a cold front will be
making its way south into the region, but uncertainty exists as
to how far. It`s likely that storms will develop Thursday night
along the front across the TX PH. How far south the front travels
will depend on the location and coverage of the storms. High
temperatures Friday will highly depend on where the front ends up,
but given weak northerly flow helping storms move south we expect
much cooler conditions with highs mostly in the 90s. It will
remain very hot along the Rio Grande ahead of the front with highs
still above 100 degrees.

As the upper trough remains in place over the Plains into early next
week, we will maintain northwesterly flow aloft. This setup could
bring multiple rounds of storms and possibly another cold front.
It`s too early to know the timing and coverage of these storms as
this will be highly dependent on what occurs the previous day.
Temperatures will stay closer to normal or even below if we see more
in the way of rain and clouds. We will also be monitoring the track
of Hurricane Beryl to see if it could affect our weather next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions continue through this TAF cycle. Winds remain
generally southeasterly and elevated but should weaken through the
early morning. Widely scattered thunderstorms are again possible
during the afternoon near CNM and HOB but confidence is too low
on any direct impacts for inclusion in the TAF at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              105  78 104  76 /   0   0  10  20
Carlsbad                102  77 102  75 /  40  30  20  30
Dryden                  102  75 101  76 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton           105  76 102  75 /  10  10  20  20
Guadalupe Pass           93  73  92  70 /  50  40  40  30
Hobbs                   102  74 100  72 /  20  30  20  30
Marfa                    98  67  96  66 /  60  30  70  40
Midland Intl Airport    104  77 101  76 /  10  10  20  30
Odessa                  103  77 101  76 /  10  10  20  30
Wink                    107  79 104  78 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati
     Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-
     Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-
     Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...91