Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
145 FXUS64 KMAF 040649 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 149 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 The winds of change are upon us for our Independence day forecast. While temperatures are once again going to be hot this afternoon as widespread upper 90s and low 100s continue, it will be a touch cooler than yesterday. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are again on tap for portions of the area as a weak disturbance slides on by to our north within the weakness in the ridge. This corridor is expected to be a touch further east than yesterday extending from the western Permian Basin down towards the Presidio Valley, very near a weak boundary set up by yesterday`s convection. These thunderstorms may produce quick downpours and mother nature`s fireworks before winding down after sunset this evening. Rainfall amounts can be expected to be mostly light with high cloud bases and relatively low near-surface relative humidity. Late this evening and tonight a cold front enters the picture, beginning the cooler pattern for the area. This cold front sags south with the aid of a trough across the Upper Mississippi River Valley and the weakness between the Southeast and Southwest ridges. This front doesn`t help with overnight temperatures which should remain well into the 70s. Much of the area can expect refreshing temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s with the only exception to the heat confined to the Rio Grande Friday afternoon. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are once again possible, mainly near the cold front across the southern Permian Basin and across the Davis to Glass Mountain regions. Once again this activity will slowly weaken and dissipate after sunset. Thankfully, more of this refreshing weather is to continue into part of the long term period. -Chehak && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 We`ve got quite the unsettled week ahead as upper ridging shifts west and a large trough envelops the Plains. Weak NW flow aloft and moist easterly flow at the surface could lead to multiple rounds of storms Saturday through Monday. It`s too early to know the timing and coverage of these storms as it will be highly dependent on what occurs the previous day. Temperatures will remain near to below normal Saturday before rising back into the upper 90s and low 100s Sunday. If we receive widespread rainfall Friday or Saturday, forecast highs on Sunday may need to be lowered. Another cold front is forecast to approach the region Monday as the upper trough remains over the Plains. This front could bring another round of storms, but most notably will help lower temperatures back to normal. Our attention will also be on Hurricane Beryl which is forecast to make landfall in N. Mexico or S. Texas late Sunday or early Monday. It`s still too early to know if we will see any rain from this storm, but we will continue to see temperatures near or below normal due to the deep easterly flow. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions continue through the period. VCTS near INK continues to weaken and should end within the next hour or two. Winds continue to remain largely southeasterly. Showers and thunderstorms are possible late tomorrow afternoon and evening at most terminals. Confidence in timing and location remains low confidence and have not included in TAF forecast at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 103 76 90 72 / 10 30 40 20 Carlsbad 101 74 92 71 / 30 40 40 30 Dryden 101 76 99 75 / 10 10 20 20 Fort Stockton 102 75 96 74 / 30 40 50 30 Guadalupe Pass 92 69 85 67 / 40 50 50 30 Hobbs 99 71 89 68 / 30 50 30 30 Marfa 94 66 90 64 / 80 60 50 30 Midland Intl Airport 101 76 90 72 / 20 40 40 30 Odessa 101 76 90 73 / 20 50 40 30 Wink 104 78 94 74 / 30 60 40 30 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...91 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...91